The Baltimore Orioles have achieved something that seemed improbable at best through the first couple months of the MLB season. They've caught the Tampa Bay Rays atop the AL East.
Last night's 8-5 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers, paired with the Rays 5-1 loss to the Texas Rangers was enough to do it, and now the two teams will face-off in a four-game weekend set starting on Thursday night.
Let's dive into the odds for Game 1 and then I'll give you my best bet.
Orioles vs. Rays odds, run line, and total
Orioles vs. Rays prediction and pick
Based on how these two teams have been playing lately, I'm surprised we're able to bet on the Orioles as such a big underdog at +160.
It's not just the Orioles' recent record that looks shinier than the Rays, it's their offensive numbers as well. Over the last 30 days, the Orioles rank 11th in Major League Baseball in OPS at .754. Meanwhile, the Rays are down at 21st in that stat at .707.
Sure, the Rays have the pitching advantage at first glance with Tyler Glasnow (3.78 ERA) getting the start against Kyle Gibson (4.77) of the Orioles, but Gibson has been significantly better on the road this season. His ERA and WHIP improves from 5.55 and 1.582 at home to 4.21 and 1.176 respectively on the road.
Glasnow is the exact same. His ERA at home is 4.26 compared to a 3.22 road ERA. That's going to hurt him in Tampa Bay tonight.
It should also be noted that Glasnow's June 20th start against the Orioles resultes in giving up six hits, two walks, and six earned runs in just 4.1 innings.
I'll gladly back the O's as underdogs tonight.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change