Orioles vs. Padres prediction and odds for Wednesday, Aug. 16 (Back the O's)

The Orioles are in a great spot as underdogs tonight when they wrap up their series against the Padres.
Aug 15, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Ryan Mountcastle (6)
Aug 15, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Ryan Mountcastle (6) / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres will have a rubber match tonight after they split the first two games in their interleague series.

Blake Snell (2.63 ERA) will get the start for the Padres and with his stellar numbers this season you'd think the padres are the obvious bet to make, right? Wrong!

Let's dive into the odds and why I like the O's to get the series win tonight.

Orioles vs. Padres odds, run line, and total

Orioles vs. Padres prediction and pick

I love the Orioles in this spot. Snell has arguably been the best pitcher in the Majors this year from an ERA perspective, but I'd argue that he's been wildly over-performing. All you need to do is look at his FIP (Field Independent Pitching) to prove that notion. With a 3.74 FIP, there are signs that he's been getting some defensive luck to help his numbers.

You can also look at his 1.285 WHIP. Allowing an average of 1.285 baserunners per inning usually doesn't lead to such a stellar 2.63 ERA. I think the Orioles are going to be able to get to him tonight.

One area that Baltimore thrives in is they leave just 3.13 runners in scoring position per game, the second fewest in the Majors. They do a great job of bringing home runners in scoring position, so if Snell continues to allow batters on base, the O's are going to take advantage.

Dean Kremer gets the start for Baltimore tonight and he's been fantastic on the road this season. He has a 3.70 ERA in 10 road starts, so I expect another strong outing from him tonight.

I'll jump all over the Orioles at +148.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!