Orioles vs. Padres prediction and odds for Tuesday, Aug. 15 (Why Baltimore is the bet)

Take advantage of the underdog price on the Orioles
Aug 13, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) hits an
Aug 13, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) hits an / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Orioles continue to stake its claim as the best team in the American League after winning 4-1 in San Diego to open its series against the Padres.

Baltimore will look to move 30 games over .500 on Tuesday with a win against the Padres again, can trade deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty continue to show up after two successful starts with his new club?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Orioles vs. Padres odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Padres prediction and pick

The Orioles continue to be undervalued, catching a + money price against an inferior opponent yet again. Baltimore is 36-26 when underdogs this season and should hand Michael Wacha some much needed regression as he continues to pitch above his level this season.

The veteran may have a 2.84 ERA in 15 starts, but that is supported by an xERA of 4.20, mainly by his ability to leave runners on base. Wacha has stranded more than 80% of runners on base this season and a home run rate of about seven percent. That will be challenged against the efficient Orioles offense that is 13th in wRC+ which quantifies run scoring chances generated at the plate.

Meanwhile, the Padres continue to underachieve despite a sky-high payroll. The team is incredibly reliant on drawing walks, second in the big leagues in walk rate, but is hitting at a bottom 10 rate in the big leagues at just .239.

Flaherty has struggled with his control at times this season, walking more than four batters per nine innings, but he has been on point in two starts with Baltimore after being acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline, allowing four earned runs in 11 innings pitched while striking out four batters for every walk.

The Orioles have been better all season long, and now get to tee off against Wacha, who has been smoke and mirrors all season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.