I hope you like fireworks because that’s what we could be in store for today with a matchup of middling starting pitching and one red-hot offense.
The Orioles make a short trip to Nationals Park today for a game against Washington that might just be the worst pitching matchup of the day: The Orioles’ Dean Kremer vs. the Nationals’ Josiah Gray.
Still, one of these choices has significantly more value than the other.
Let’s dig into the details.
Orioles vs. Nationals odds, run line and total
Orioles vs. Nationals prediction and pick
Neither of these pitchers have resumes that are too impressive, but Gray has been especially bad in his time at the MLB level.
A former top prospect with the Dodgers, Gray has a 5.11 ERA since getting called up in 2021.
Gray’s fastball ranked as one of the worst fastballs in MLB last season according to multiple sources including FanGraphs and it led to a lot of hard contact against him. Last season, Gray allowed 38 home runs – by far the most in MLB.
This puts Baltimore in a good spot to take advantage.
The Orioles have already hit 22 home runs this season (Tied for 6th in MLB) and have scored 94 runs (2nd most in MLB) already.
Also, some of Baltimore’s best hitters, including Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander, are either left-handed hitters or switch hitters who can bat left-handed and that does not bode well for Gray.
In his career, Gray owns an ERA over 6.00 against left-handed hitters and over a 6.00 ERA in starts at home – both of which he will face today.
Though Kremer hasn’t posted very impressive numbers, either, he did record a 3.23 ERA over 125 ⅓ innings last season. Those are numbers that Gray can’t compete with at this point in his career, and that’s not even to mention that the Nationals’ offense has mustered just 62 runs so far (26th in MLB).
Take the better offense against the worst pitcher, and don’t be afraid to lay a -1.5 number.
Pick: Baltimore Run Line (-1.5) +115
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.