Orioles vs. Mariners prediction and odds for Sunday, August 13 (Finally Some Runs)

The Orioles ended the Mariners win streak yesterday and now they will play the rubber match in Seattle today.
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish (39)
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish (39) / Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners got an incredible start from George Kirby who went nine scoreless innings yesterday, but Andrés Muñoz gave up a run in the 10th inning as the Baltimore Orioles stole a 1-0 win. That snapped an eight-game win streak and now the Mariners are 63-53 and only a half game out of a Wild Card spot. The Orioles are 72-45 and leading the AL East heading into the rubber match today.

For Game 3 of this series the Orioles will go with Kyle Bradish against Bryce Miller. Bradish is 7-6 in 21 starts with a 3.19 ERA and Miller is 7-4 with a 4.20 ERA in 16 starts for Seattle.

Let’s get into the odds for the rubber match after a 10-inning pitcher’s duel yesterday.

Orioles vs. Mariners odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Mariners prediction and pick

I’m not sure we can expect the same type of game today as we got yesterday with Cole Irvin and the Baltimore bullpen going toe-to-toe with a ridiculously good start from George Kirby, but these are two good pitchers taking the mound today.

Bradish has a solid 3.77 FIP, but his 4.14 xERA isn’t so promising. He also has low whiff and chase rates, so he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts and his 17th percentile hard hit rate is not encouraging. 

Miller has a 3.95 FIP and one of his best attributes is his 92nd percentile walk rate, but he gets hit very hard. His in the bottom two percent of pitchers in average exit velocity and bottom 10% in hard hit and barrel rate. He’s allowed 13 homers in his 16 starts, but he has a 31.9% fly ball rate which is 8.5% higher than league average. So he gets hit very hard in the air a lot, I would expect his home run rate to go up.

Like I said, these are solid starting pitchers, but I think we see a complete flip from yesterday’s game, so I’ll take the over. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change