The bats have been cold in San Francisco this weekend in a three game series between the Orioles and Giants. Can things pick up at the plate on Sunday?
There have been nine combined runs across two games in San Fran, but both offenses will look to breakout in the rubber match between these two playoff contending teams. Can the Orioles breakthrough against Anthony DeSclafani?
Here are the odds and our best bet for Sunday's matchup:
Orioles vs. Giants odds, run line and total
Orioles vs. Giants prediction and pick
DeSclafani has been pitching above expectations this season, but I expect regression to set in soon. While his 3.48 ERA looks strong on the surface, he is doing it by stranding nearly 70% of batters on base. The veteran right hander has an xERA more than a run higher than his actual ERA at 4.52.
The Orioles are a top 10 offense this season that is elite at generating run scoring chances, ninth in wRC+ as well as walk rate. DeSclafani is great at limiting his walks, just over one per nine innings, but the Orioles will put pressure on him to put the ball in the strike zone and there's plenty of pop in the lineup to make him pay.
However, Tyler Wells' numbers suggest that he should be taking a step back as well. Opponents are hitting .175 on balls in play this season against the third year pro and his xERA is nearly a half-run higher than his ERA (3.64 vs. 3.29).
This can be an issue against a Giants team that is hot at the dish, hitting .276 over the last 15 days, the seventh highest in baseball.
This game looks fairly priced as a near pick 'em, so I'll stay off the side and bet the over in what could be a breakout game for both offenses.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.