Orioles vs. Brewers prediction and odds for Wednesday, June 7 (Value on total)

Jun 6, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA;  Baltimore Orioles center fielder Aaron Hicks (34)
Jun 6, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Baltimore Orioles center fielder Aaron Hicks (34) / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles dropped a tight one to the Milwaukee Brewers in the opening game of this mid-week series, 4-3, can the offense find its form against former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes?

Baltimore has been a vaunted offense all season while Burnes has been far from his best self in 2023. Something has to give on Wednesday night, especially with the Orioles having to count on Dean Kremer, who has been skating by this season.

How should we bet this one? Before we give one out, let's look at the odds:

Orioles vs. Brewers odds run line and total

Orioles vs. Brewers prediction and pick

Burnes has been getting by this season, but far from his best, posting a 3.75 ERA through 12 starts. He has seen his velocity diminish this season, only eight strikeout per nine innings, the first time he has been below double digits since his rookie season.

With his drop in strikeouts, he has been far more susceptible to being hit, which the Orioles thrive on, 12th in OPS. Further, Burnes is due for some regression, posting a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.59.

Kremer, though, has been even luckier than Burnes. He has an ERA of 4.43 but his xERA is far higher at 6.38 considering opponents are crushing him to the tune of .330 on balls in play. Despite opponents hitting so well, he is stranding 77% of batters on base and avoiding getting tagged too badly.

While the Brewers offense is mediocre at best, 26th in OPS as a unit, this total is too low for a suspect pitcher like Kremer.

I'm staying off the side and will go for the over on between the two teams given the concerning metrics of both pitchers.

Game odds subject to change