Orioles rookie Colton Cowser cedes ground to division rival in ROTY race

For much of the 2024 season, Orioles' rookie outfielder Colton Cowser appeared to be the frontrunner for the American League Rookie of the Year award. Just two weeks ago, Birds Watcher's Nicholas Cinnamo wrote an article touting Cowser's accomplishments this year, which included a stellar 3.2 WAR, 18 home runs, and outfield defense that ranked among the league's best.

However, Cowser's bat has slowed a bit in September, as he has posted only a .185 average and .538 OPS this month. And as Cowser has slowed somewhat, a star rookie that calls the Bronx home has entered the chat: their mustached-catcher, Austin Wells.

Wells has settled into the cleanup spot for the New York Yankees, batting after MVP candidates Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, and is currently batting .252 with 13 home runs, 49 RBIs, and a .779 OPS. Cowser's numbers are better, though not significantly so: .243 average, 20 home runs, 62 RBIs, and a .763 OPS. Both Wells and Cowser are terrific defenders, with Wells ranking as an elite pitch framer and third in fielding run value (as noted by Sports Illustrated's John Sparaco.

Yankees rookie catcher Austin Wells is now the betting favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award

According to Vegas Insider, Wells is the current odds-on favorite to win the award, with Cowser second and Wells' Yankees teammate Luis Gil third. In fairness, it never felt like Cowser had a commanding lead for the award. It's been a roller coaster season for Cowser, with more ups and downs and twists and turns than Hershey Park's Great Bear.

Cowser won AL Rookie of the Month in April with a .991 OPS. After an ice cold May and June (where it appeared Cowser lost his starting job to Heston Kjerstad), Cowser rebounded in July to post a .911 OPS. Cowser has returned to earth since then, posting a .718 OPS in August and the .538 OPS in September.

And as solid as Cowser has been, he has not been a star like last year's Rookie of the Year winner - Gunnar Henderson - was in 2023. Henderson hit 28 home runs and posted an .814 OPS last season, and was worth 4.8 WAR. If Cowser was putting up these numbers, it is unlikely Wells would be in the conversation.

For what it's worth, Cowser helped his cause in the Orioles' rubber match with Boston with a triple and single. Austin Wells did not start against Kansas City, but socked a game-tying sac fly in the bottom of the tenth inning.

It is likely that the AL Rookie of the Year award will come down to the final week of the regular season. With Wells, Cowser, and Gil in the top 3, it is all but guaranteed that an Oriole or Yankee will win the award. But with the Orioles and Yankees expected to fight tooth and nail for the AL East over the next three weeks, both Wells and Cowser likely have bigger things on their mind than the ROTY award.