Orioles projected rotation after MLB trade deadline deals

Between Tommy John surgeries, promotions and demotions, and recent trades, the Orioles' starting rotation seems to be ever-shifting. In fact, across 110 games, the Orioles have started 12 different pitchers.

With all of these changes and only a few months left in the season, what will the Orioles' starting rotation look like down the stretch?

To help answer this question, I will categorize their 12 starting pitchers into four buckets: the staples (three), the injured (three), the newcomers (two), and the backups (four).

How does the Orioles' rotation look moving forward?

The three staples consist of Corbin Burnes (22 GS, 2.47 ERA), Grayson Rodriguez (20 GS, 3.86 ERA), and Dean Kremer (14 GS, 4.20 ERA). These pitchers have been the most consistent throughout the season.

The three injured consist of Kyle Bradish (8 GS, 2.75 ERA), John Means (4 GS, 2.61 ERA), and Tyler Wells (3 GS, 5.87 ERA). Bradish and Means both underwent successful Tommy John surgery, whereas Wells avoided TJ but still required UCL surgery. These pitchers will not return until later in 2025, if not 2026, so it is important to remember that this rotation is relatively strong despite early injuries.

The two newcomers are former Tampa Bay Ray Zach Eflin (1 GS, 4.11 ERA) and former Miami Marlin Trevor Rogers (1 GS, 4.76 ERA). Eflin had a strong debut, giving up three runs in 6 innings and getting the win. Rogers, on the other hand, struggled in his debut, surrendering five runs in 4.1 innings and getting the loss.

Finally, the four backups consist of Cole Irvin (14 GS, 4.85 ERA), Albert Suarez (14 GS, 3.59 ERA), Cade Povich (8 GS, 6.27 ERA), and Chayce McDermott (1 GS, 6.75 ERA).

Irvin was recently designated for assignment so he is not technically a "backup" unless they bring him back; Suarez was moved to long-relief role in the bullpen after the trades for Eflin and Rogers; Povich has been optioned and recalled several times and is currently with the Triple-A team, and McDermott has spent the majority of the season with the Norfolk Tides (20 GS, 3.90 ERA).

Now, there is always concern about injuries, especially as the season goes on and pitchers tire out. There is also some concern that Trevor Rogers will not be serviceable, and this concern was heightened after his weak debut in Baltimore.

Should a pitcher go down with an injury or should Rogers or another starter struggle, Suarez could return as a starter given his strong numbers. It is even possible that they try Rogers as a reliever and bring Suarez back as a starter, although GM Mike Elias confirmed that they want Suarez in the bullpen.

The O's could also bring Povich or McDermott back up from Triple-A, as they have both pitched well for the Tides.

If all else fails, they can consider bringing up 28 year old LHP Tucker Davidson, who has struggled in the majors in his career (5.98 ERA in 125 innings) but has put together a good season with the Tides (2.85 ERA). Since he has not started a game for the Orioles this season, he was excluded from my analysis, but he is an emergency option for the O's.

Since their injured starters are not returning this season and their backups are either in the bullpen, Triple-A, or DFA'd, their rotation is very neatly composed of the three staples and two newcomers. And, while they didn't make the move for Skubal or Crochet, the newcomers certainly make this rotation stronger and deeper than it was pre-deadline.

So, I give you the Orioles' projected starting rotation for the remainder of the 2024 season:

1. Corbin Burnes: 11-4, 2.47 ERA, 138.2 IP, 128 Ks, 1.04 WHIP

2. Grayson Rodriguez: 13-4, 3.86 ERA, 116.2 IP, 130 Ks, 1.24 WHIP

3. Zach Eflin: 6-7, 4.11 ERA, 116.0 IP, 94 Ks, 1.19 WHIP

4. Dean Kremer: 4-7, 4.20 ERA, 75.0 IP, 73 Ks, 1.23 WHIP

5. Trevor Rogers: 2-10, 4.76 ERA, 109.2 IP, 88 Ks, 1.55 WHIP

Alternatives: Suarez, Povich, McDermott, Davidson.