Marlins vs. Orioles prediction and odds for Friday, July 14 (Back O's out of the break)

Both the Orioles and Marlins had good first halves, but only one team looks for real.
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer (64)
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer (64) / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles are not the only team that has taken a big step towards legit contention in the first half of 2023.

The Miami Marlins are 53-39 and in second in the NL East. The O’s are second in the AL East at 54-35 and both are chasing down the best team in their league.

Baltimore is only two games back of the Tampa Bay Rays and the Marlins are 8.5 behind the Atlanta Braves.

For their return from the All-Star break the Marlins will go with their former All-Star and hope he finally pitches like one again.

Sandy Alcantara is 3-7 with a 4.72 ERA and will make his 19th start of the year on Friday. He will be opposed by Dean Kremer who is 9-4 for Batlimore, but with a 4.78 ERA in his 18 starts. 

The Orioles are home favorites against last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner, so let’s get into the odds for this interleague matchup. 

Marlins vs. Orioles odds, run line and total

Marlins vs. Orioles prediction and pick

There is a bit of a difference in the breakout that both of these teams are having. The Orioles and Marlins have similar records, but Baltimore is sixth in the MLB with a +48 run differential and Miami is 19th with a -5. 

The Orioles are 10th in team OPS and 16th in team ERA with a lights out bullpen while the Marlins are 14th in OPS and 14th in ERA. in terms of expected win/loss record the Orioles are 49-40 while the Marlins are 45-47.

The Orioles seem like the more sustainable unit for the stretch run, but both of these teams have an issue. They keep trying to force their Friday night starter to be their No. 1 in the rotation.

Dean Kremer is not a No. 1 guy, he has a 4.94 FIP and has allowed 20 home runs already, but neither is Alcantara, not anymore. Alcantara’s strikeout rate has fallen off completely and his hard hit rate has gone up. 

The fact that Alcantara was a Cy Young Award winner is baked into the odds here. The Orioles are the better offensive team and have a comparable starter with the better bullpen. They’re a good bet as a slight favorite. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change