The Baltimore Orioles needed extra innings yesterday, but they took Game 2 of this three game series 6-4 with a walk off home run by Ryan McKenna. It was an important bounce back for the Orioles who are now 46-29 after getting throttled 13-1 on Friday. Heading into their series finale with the 37-38 Seattle Mariners the O’s will send Kyle Bradish to mound against George Kirby.
Bradish comes into his 14th start of the season at 3-3 with a 3.80 ERA and Kirby is 6-6 with a 3.29 ERA in his 14 starts. With Kirby on the mound the Mariners are road favorites in Baltimore today.
Mariners vs. Orioles odds, run line and total
Mariners vs. Orioles prediction and pick
The Baltimore Orioles have been home underdogs 10 times this season and split those games, 5-5. That’s a good record, but not as strong as last season when they finished 28-25 in those situations. The O’s are still being doubted by Vegas some, even with one of their better starters on the mound. Bradish typically doesn't typically go very deep into starts, but last time out he had eight strikeouts in five innings of two run ball. Baltimore’s bullpen has a 3.82 ERA on the year, and with the Orioles having an 8-5 record in Bradish’s starts, they’re typically able to get it over the finish line.
For Bradish to leave with a lead, the Baltimore offense will need to get to Kirby, which isn’t an easy task. However, I trust the Orioles lineup much more because they are top 10 in both OPS and home runs in June, but only 19th in runs scored. The runs will catch up to the OPS being top 10, rarely do you see a discrepancy like that this late into a month. Baltimore is due for a big offensive output and Kirby has a tendency to let starts really get away if they are going bad.
Earlier this month, Kirby allowed five runs on 11 hits in 3.2 innings against the Padres, last month he gave up seven on nine hits in 4.2 to Pittsburgh and his first start of the year was four runs over 4.1.
The Orioles have been hurt by the fact that Adley Rutschman is slumping with just one hit in the last week, but Anthony Santander and Aaron Hicks are doing enough to carry the team. Santander has four home runs in the past week and Hicks checks in with a 1.103 OPS in 16 at-bats. I like Baltimore to have a big day offensively and I love the value as a home underdog.
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