How the Orioles' strength of schedule suggests a strong second half

The Orioles entered the All-Star break with a 58-38 (.604) record, which puts them atop the AL East and gives them the third best record in baseball.

But sometimes the mid-season records do not tell the whole story. Perhaps a team that plays better at home suffered more than they should because they played more home games, like the Guardians who won 30 of 41 (.732) home games and only 28 of 54 road games (.519). But, given that 40 of their remaining 67 games will be played at home, they should boost their winning percentage in the second half.

Similarly, a team might benefit from having an easier schedule, like the Phillies whose .488 strength of schedule (SOS) in the first half was the second lowest in baseball and their .646 wining percentage was the best in baseball. Given their .505 remaining SOS, it can be predicted that the Phillies' winning percentage will drop post All -Star Break as they will generally be playing better teams.

The Orioles' SOS through the All-Star break was .510, tied with three teams for the hardest schedule in baseball. The three other teams with the hardest schedules, the Angels, Blue Jays, and White Sox, all have winning percentages below .500.

Meanwhile, the Phillies and Guardians — the only teams with better records than the Orioles — had the two easiest schedules in baseball.

Additionally, the O's .492 remaining SOS is the eighth easiest in baseball, the fifth easiest in the AL, and the easiest in the AL East.

Notably, the Orioles will face the Rockies, Marlins, and White Sox — the three worst teams in baseball — three times each, for a total of nine games. They will also face the 44-52 Blue Jays seven times.

Their high first half SOS and low second half SOS suggest that the Orioles will perform even better after the All-Star Break, as they performed at such a high level already despite having one of the most difficult schedules.

Their biggest concern is the Yankees, their division rival. The Yankees had a .509 SOS in the first half, just a point below the Orioles. And, they have a .493 SOS in the second half, just a point above the Orioles. It will definitely be a close race down the stretch, and their final 3-game series against one another will be massive.

Should the Orioles fall to a Wild Card spot, many of their competitors do have harder schedules after the All Star break. The Twins, Red Sox, Royals, Astros, and Rays all have higher SOS.

Of course, these statistics merely provide educated guesses. The Orioles could slow down and drop their winning percentage, despite their success against great teams in the first half and their relatively easy schedule in the second half.

But, these numbers are a good sign for both their second-half performance and their confidence. After a first round exit last playoffs, the youthful Orioles still have to prove that they can compete with the best teams. And in this first half of baseball, they have done just that.