How the Baltimore Orioles can win the AL East in 2023

2. Gunnar Henderson Contends for Rookie of the Year

It is pretty rare for a team to have the top pitching prospect and the top position player prospect on the same team to start the season. But that is what the Orioles have with Rodriguez and the No. 1 overall prospect, Gunnar Henderson. Henderson dominated minor league pitching in 2022 to the tune of a .946 OPS between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, and more than held his own in Baltimore, posting a .788 OPS over 132 plate appearances with the Orioles. And even bigger things are expected for the 21-year-old infielder, as well-respected ZIPs projects a 5.0 WAR season for Henderson, an .812 OPS, 24 home runs, and 100 RBIs. Well-respected baseball writers, such as ESPN's Buster Olney, are predicting a Rookie of the Year season for Henderson. For the Orioles to win the division, they will need all of that and more from Henderson. And like Rodriguez, Henderson is more than capable of answering.

3. Adley Rutschman Plays at an MVP Level

While the Orioles need their two impressive rookies to emerge as stars to win the division, it is just as important that their best player, Adley Rutschman, continue to improve. Rustchman had a terrific rookie season, amassing 5.2 WAR and OPSing a solid .806. But for the Orioles to win the division, Rustchman needs to do even more, such as becoming the first catcher to win MVP since San Francisco Giants' great Buster Posey took home the trophy in 2012. It would likely take an OPS over .875, more stellar defense, and leadership that produces winning. And Rustchman, the number one prospect in baseball heading into 2022, is more than capable.

4. The Bullpen Dominance Continues

It is no secret: the Orioles 2022 bullpen was outstanding, and largely responsible for the team's surprising turnaround. All of the main pieces, including Felix Bautista, Cionel Perez, Dillon Tate, Brian Baker and Keegan Akin are returning, while former closer Mychal Givens begins his second tour of duty in Charm City. Although he has been slowed by injury in spring training, Bautista enters 2023 as the team's undisputed closer after saving 15 games and posting a 2.19 ERA in 2022. The Orioles need Bautista to do his best Zack Britton impression in 2023: low ninth inning ERA, low ninth inning stress. And if the Orioles want to not only make the playoffs, but win the division, a lot of that will be up to Bautista and Co. continuing to dominate late innings.

5. Solid, Steady, Seasons from the Regulars

Aside from adding Adam Frazier, the Orioles are returning most of their incumbent position players from 2022. The outfield of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, and Anthony Santander remains the same. Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Urias are returning. For Hays and Mullins, above average defense and OPSes around .800 will work. For Santander, another 30 home run season and consistent run-producing in the middle of the order will help. For Mountcastle, a few more walks and a little more consistency, combined with his light tower power, could produce his first OPS over .800 in the majors. And if Mateo and Urias continue providing stellar defense with acceptable offense (more Urias than Mateo), then the offense could lead this team to that dream scenario.

6. HEALTH

A big reason for the success of the 2022 Baltimore Orioles was their ability to stay on the field. Aside from losing John Means and Grayson Rodriguez to injury, the 2022 Orioles remained healthy for the most part. The same needs to be true for 2023. Earlier this week, fans were reminded just how fickle player health can be, when Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Gavin Lux tore his right ACL in a Cactus League game and is now expected to miss the entire season. Nearly every team will deal with injuries: a strain or sprain, a bout of tendonitis, and perhaps even a small fracture. But for the Orioles to win the AL East in 2023, their health must remain a strong suit for them, as it was in 2022.

7. A Little Luck

With a new, balanced schedule, where the Orioles play their American East League foes less than in years past, it is possible that items one through six on this list come true - and the Orioles still do not win the division. No, to win the division, the Orioles will need the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox to a lesser extent, to underperform. Each team has possible areas that could knock them down a peg. For the Yankees, it would start with Aaron Judge putting up a solid, but non-Ruthian, baseball season and Carlos Rodon perhaps reverting to the pitcher who struggled with his control in Chicago. For the Rays, perhaps the magic will finally run out, and for the Jays, perhaps their starting pitching will remain inconsistent behind ace Alek Manoah. And for the Red Sox, perhaps the losses of Xander Boegarts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Michael Wacha will keep them in the AL East basement.

Winning the American League East will not be easy. It will require good health, good fortune, good luck, and most importantly, good play by the Orioles stars. But no one but dreamers expected the Orioles to improve from 52 to 83 wins in 2022, and they did it. So, as we kick off spring training play this week, why not dream again? Except for this time, the attainable, albeit dream regular season would involve the Orioles taking the AL East crown.