Guardians vs. Orioles prediction and odds for Memorial Day (Trust Baltimore at home)

The Baltimore Orioles avoided a sweep against the Texas Rangers on Sunday, and now look to get back on track against the Guardians with one of the team's emerging rotation arms on the mound.

Tyler Wells draws the start for the Orioles at home on Monday in the series opener against the Guardians. Wells has been outstanding thus far, posting the AL's lowest WHIP through 10 appearances, can he keep it up against one of the worst offenses in baseball?

Here are the odds for Monday afternoon's matchup:

Guardians vs. Orioles odds, run line and total

Guardians vs. Orioles prediction and pick

Wells is off one of his worst starts of the season, allowing five earned runs against the Yankees in five innings, including three home runs, but this Guardians team is too weak at the plate to outpace the Orioles lineup. Cleveland is dead last in wRC+, which quantifies the quality of run scoring chances and have an on-base percentage that is less than .300 (.298) which is the third worst in basebal.

Cleveland will lean on left handed rookie Logan Allen to limit the Orioles offense, but the Baltimore lineup is too proficient against southpaws, top 10 in OPS this season. Allen has decent stats, posting a 3.31 ERA and a strikeout to walk ratio hovering near four, but he allows more than 10 hits per nine innings, which can be a problem against Baltimore who is elite at getting the ball in play.

Both teams are elite out of the bullpen as well, each inside the top five in unit ERA, but the Orioles offense is simply too far ahead of the Guardians to lay off of them at home.

I'll take the home chalk.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.