The Baltimore Orioles are trying to protect their lead in the AL East and the 7-0 win over the Toronto Blue Jays last night certainly helped. The O’s lead the East by two games over the Rays at 78-48 and are keeping the Blue Jays on the outside of the postseason picture right now. Toronto is a game back of the final Wild Card spot at 70-57.
For the series finale in Baltimore, the Blue Jays will go with Jose Berrios against Kyle Gibson. Berrios is 9-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts this season while Gibson comes in with a 4.97 ERA across 26 starts with a record of 12-7.
Let’s take a look at the odds for the rubber match as nearly every team in the AL East is still jockeying for position approaching the final month of the regular season.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds, run line and total
Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction and pick
The Blue Jays desperately needed a bounce back season from Jose Berrios and he’s delivered one. He’s nearly pitched 150 innings and has been very good and reliable. His last time out he went 5.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts, but he did issue four walks.
While he has been a lot better than last year, his xERA of 4.51 is still the second highest of his career since his rookie season. His FIP has also been hovering around four for most of the season, which isn’t a good sign for him going forward. Last time he faced Baltimore he went 7.2 scoreless and gave up just three hits. It was his best start of the year.
Kyle Gibson’s ERA is nearly five, but his FIP of 3.87 is better than Berrios’ and his xERA of 4.54 is particularly identical. Gibson has pitched more innings and despite their differences in ERA has been a pretty similar pitcher to Berrios. That’s reflected in the odds for this one. The bullpens are also nearly identical, ranking fifth and sixth in ERA this season.
The difference is at the plate, not on the mound. The Orioles have scored 24 more runs this month and have an OPS that is 75 points higher. For that reason alone I’ll take Baltimore at home.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change