Baltimore Orioles 2024 Opening Day roster projection 3.0: Red hot outfielder snubbed

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The 18-5 Orioles are enjoying their final spring training off day on Monday, March 18, before closing out their Grapefruit League Schedule with seven more games. Too bad a team's spring training results mean absolutely nothing.

What does mean something, however, are the players' individual statistics, especially those who were not guaranteed a spot on the Orioles 26-man roster coming into camp.

Since Version 2.0 of my Opening Day Roster Projection articles came out, several players have played themselves into the running for spots on the roster, including players - looking at you, Kyle Stowers -who were considered longshots at best for a roster spot when players reported in mid-February. The Orioles now have a pleasant predicament on their hands, with several position players competing for a precious 13 spots in Brandon Hyde's starting lineup and bench. And while the pitching competition may be a bit clearer, there are still a handful of players competing for the few final spots in Brandon Hyde's bullpen.

2024 Baltimore Orioles Opening Day Roster Projection 3.0

Catchers: Adley Rutschman, James McCann (2)

Despite all of the movement that has taken place since we published Version 1.0, it is nice that the Orioles' catching situation has remained the same. Of course, barring injury, everyone knew that Rustchman and McCann would likely be the two Orioles running down the orange carpet on March 28 when the O's host the Los Angeles Angels at Camden Yards. Assuming this duo remains healthy for the next week and a half, that is exactly what we will see on Opening Day.

With that said, Michael Perez (.807 OPS, one home run) had a solid spring, and should one of the Orioles' top two catchers go down with an injury, he would likely take their place on the roster, especially if top prospect Samuel Basallo is not ready yet.

Infielders (7): Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O'Hearn, Ramon Urías

As things currently stand, the above-named infielders are projected to travel north with the team for Opening Day. I am well aware of Coby Mayo's dominant Spring Training, one in which he has led the team in hits (15), doubles (7) and been third in OPS behind Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers. But Roch Kubatko reported that Mayo's chances to make the team are significantly lower if Jackson Holliday makes the club. And Holliday, who came into Spring Training ahead of Mayo for a roster spot, has done nothing to cast doubt on his preparedness for the Show.

The 20-year-old Holliday has posted an .883 OPS in 40 at-bats, including a monstrous grand slam blast against the Blue Jays a little while ago. And while I think the Orioles should trade Ramon Urías - not because he isn't good, but because he likely has more value to another team playing every day than he does in Baltimore - there is no current indication that he will be moved. Veteran Kolten Wong, who the Orioles signed to a minor-league contract, is likely on the outside looking in.

Outfielders (4): Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser

Despite including Heston Kjerstad as a backup outfielder for Versions 1 and 2, it appears clear that Colton Cowser has leap-frogged Kjerstad for the left-handed hitting power outfield bat spot. In fact, as Roch Kubatko noted Monday morning, both Cowser and Kyle Stowers are likely ahead of Kjerstad in the pecking order for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

And speaking of Stowers. Following his three-home run barrage yesterday against the Tigers, Stowers is up to seven home runs on the Spring to lead the entire Grapefruit League. Didn't see that one coming.

Stowers had himself a day 💪 pic.twitter.com/qsnz7nT7Z4
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) March 17, 2024

But this is the same Kyle Stowers who couldn't stick with the Orioles after being assured a spot last spring.

As Camden Chat shrewdly pointed out, "Kyle Stowers essentially lost a year in 2023. He broke camp with the team, struggled right away, suffered a pair of injuries in the minors and never made his way back to Baltimore. He recorded just two hits in 30 at bats, took a fastball to the face at Triple-A, and missed nearly two months with shoulder inflammation. By anyone’s standards, that qualifies as a year to forget."

That's not say Stowers won't contribute to the Orioles this year. If I had my druthers, I would carry Stowers and Cowser, and try to find a trade partner for Ryan O'Hearn. But there simply is no room for three power-hitting, left-handed outfield/DH types, especially with Hays, Mullins, and Santander locked in as the starting three outfielders. Something has to give.

The best thing for Stowers and the Orioles at this point is a trade. While it is unclear what Stowers would fetch in a deal, an injury-riddled team (such as the Reds, who just lost outfielder TJ Friedl to a broken wrist) could deal for Stowers. Without making this a trade article, the Orioles could package Stowers with another player and target a pitcher in return.

Finally, it appears with Mateo and Cowser, both of whom can cover center field, set to make the team, Ryan McKenna may be left without a chair when the music stops.

Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin (5)

It appears safe to say that Burnes, Rodriguez, Kremer, and Wells are locked into the top four spots in the starting rotation. Despite struggling a bit this spring, Burnes has been announced as the Orioles' Opening Day Starter. Rodriguez, Kremer, and Wells will follow. The real question is: who will the fifth starter be before John Means is able to return? Cole Irvin appears to be the frontrunner, though he has struggled to a 6.23 ERA through three spring starts. Veteran Julio Teheran, who the Orioles signed earlier in camp, is in the running as well, though he has struggled to a 4.82 ERA in three starts (four total appearances) and may be better suited for the pen.

With Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott optioned and slated to begin the year in Triple-A Norfolk's rotation, the only other option appears to be someone from outside the organization. That could be someone acquired via trade (with Kyle Stowers, Ramon Urías, or even Ryan O'Hearn available) or, though less likely, someone signed in free agency. To be clear, while Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still available on the free agent market, it's not fair to expect either of them to sign to play in Baltimore this year.

At the end of the day, the fifth spot remains Irvin's to lose until Means returns.

Relief Pitchers: Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Cionel Perez, Dillon Tate, Mike Baumann, Keegin Akin, Julio Teheran (8)

Several Orioles relievers have pitched well this Spring. Keegin Akin, Dillon Tate, Bryan Baker, and Mike Baumann have yet to allow a run. Nick Vespi has been solid, allowing only two runs over seven innings and striking out nine batters. Even Jonathan Heasley, quietly acquired in an offseason deal with KC, has pitched well.

But the Orioles will not just take the guys who pitched best this spring. Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Cionel Perez, and Danny Coulombe were locked into roles coming into the spring, leaving four available spots. Dillon Tate, who was one of the Orioles' most dependable relievers for years before an injury sidelined him for 2023, would have had to have pitched himself off the team to lose a role. He did not.

With the Orioles needing length out of their pen, especially with Wells and Irvin occupying the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, it only makes sense that former starters Teheran, Akin, and Baumann occupy the final three spots.

Just because these eight are projected to make the team out of spring training does not mean they will stay on the team if they struggle. For example, the Orioles will likely not hesitate to designate Teheran for assignment if he scuffles early, and bring up Heasley, Vespi, or even Bryan Baker to take his spot.

But as of now, this appears to be the most likely bullpen alignment going into Opening Day.

It bears repeating, however: much can happen between now and March 28, and much can happen after the season starts. While Ramon Urías and Ryan O'Hearn are currently on the projected roster, either one of them could be traded to free up at-bats for Mayo, Stowers, or Kjerstad. While Cole Irvin is penciled into the rotation now, John Means may return as early as April. And Kyle Bradish's rehab has progressed well so far, which may mean a return to the bullpen for Tyler Wells.

Who knows what will happen? This roster could be exactly right or compeltely wrong. That is what makes the end of spring training and the beginning of the new baseball season so exciting!

Ten more days!

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