Astros vs. Orioles prediction and odds for Thursday, August 10 (Lean on Pitching)

The Astros are up 2-0 in this series after a 7-6 win in Game 1 and an 8-2 win yesterday both days behind Kyle Tucker home runs.

Baltimore Orioles third baseman Gunnar Henderson (2)
Baltimore Orioles third baseman Gunnar Henderson (2) / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a pretty big chance that the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles meet in the playoffs and that might not be great news for Baltimore. Houston has taken the first two games of this three-game set and yesterday won 8-2. The Astros are still a few games worse than the Orioles are 66-49 while Baltimore is 70-44.

The O’s need to salvage one game of this series, but the Astros will go for the sweep with Hunter Brown on the mound against Dean Kremer. Brown is 8-7 with a 4.07 ERA in 21 starts this year while Kremer is 10-4 with a 4.61 ERA in his 23 starts.

Baltimore has gone 75 straight series without getting swept, but Kyle Tucker has homered in both games of this series and he has the Orioles back’s against the ropes.

Astros vs. Orioles odds, run line and total

Astros vs. Orioles prediction and pick

The Astros just seem to be the team that’s been there and done that and is unphased by a series like this on the road. They aren’t even leading their division at this point, but I imagine that they’re not too worried about it in that clubhouse. The Orioles may have the talent to counterpunch in this series, but I’m not sure about the mental fortitude of this baseball team.

Over the past 30 days the Orioles are 16th in team OPS at .733 which is a bit of a drop-off from the .744 OPS they have for the season which ranks them top 10. In terms of recent contributions they just haven’t been hitting the longball with only 25 in the past 30 days. Gunnar Henderson leads the way with six over that stretch, but their power outage has hurt their offense, but not their record. They’re 16-9 in those 30 days because of their pitching. 

Baltimore has been pitching well and Kremer was solid last time out. Hunter Brown was even better in his most recent start going six innings and allowing two runs. He’s had a nice stretch lately and with his 3.86 FIP I expect it to continue. 

I’m not sure if Baltimore is up to the test. I’m not sure they’re truly able to hang with the defending champs, but the way they’re pitching right now they won’t have another eight-spot put on them like yesterday. I’ll take the under in the series finale. 

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