5 free agents we wish the Baltimore Orioles could afford

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One of the most remarkable things about the Baltimore Orioles' 101-win, unswept 2023 season is that they managed to do all of it as MLB's third lowest spenders this year, with a payroll of just a little over $71 million (and $15 million of that went to Chris Davis). The 2023 league average payroll was $165 million; the Orioles haven't even spent over $100 million since Manny Machado and Adam Jones were still on the team, and they are not expected to do so again anytime soon.

This is admirable in some ways; almost the entirety of Baltimore's young infield is homegrown, they still made themselves in one of baseball's most exciting franchises in 2023, and Gunnar Henderson was just unanimously named AL Rookie of the Year. In the other ways, though, it's incredibly frustrating, especially as we wade into the offseason with low expectations for the Orioles to be aggressive with the open free agent market.

Here are 5 free agents that the Orioles should open their wallets for, but won't

Smaller pickups are possible and could still be beneficial to the team next season, but there's little chance any of the names everyone knows will end up wearing an Orioles jersey next year. Here are five expensive free agents we wish the Orioles would go after, if they had the money.

Shohei Ohtani

The 2023 offseason's white whale, Shohei Ohtani, will be on every small market team's envy- and longing-based list the same way he'll be on every big market's team must-haves list. There's a lot of risk attached to whatever long, record-breaking contract Ohtani inevitably signs — even more so than there usually is with those kinds of contracts — given the UCL injury that will keep him off the mound in 2024. Of course, this isn't keeping any of the richest teams in baseball from circling and preparing to throw cash at him as soon as he looks their way.

Projections for the exact amount Ohtani will make with his next contract number vary greatly, but all are exorbitant — a fun ESPN feature calculated his true value at an astronomical $789.7 million over 12 years, without taking into account the injury which will hamper his 2024, while the Athletic landed on a much more conservative estimate of $477 million over 10 years. Either way, numbers like that easily exclude the Orioles as candidates for his next club.

It would undoubtedly be a lot of fun to watch Ohtani partake in the home run bong, or do the sprinkler from second, or spit water onto the field after a teammate's double, as well as hit 40+ home runs for Baltimore and take the mound for the home team at Oriole Park in 2025 — even if it won't happen. It's fun to dream.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Second only to the hype surrounding Shohei Ohtani is the hype surrounding fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It's for good reason, too — Yamamoto is a three time pitching Triple Crown winner in NPB for the Orix Buffaloes, a WBC champion in 2023 for Samurai Japan, and he has a staggering 1.82 lifetime ERA with 922 strikeouts and has thrown two no-hitters. Eyes really started to turn to Yamamoto when Yankees GM Brian Cashman was spotted in attendance at his second no-hitter, immediately sparking rumors connecting him to New York.

Cashman and the Yankees aren't the only ones anymore. Yamamoto's arrival in MLB will almost certainly be accompanied by the largest initial contract given to a Japanese pitcher, surpassing Masahiro Tanaka's $155 million in 2014. With the Orioles, Yamamoto would join Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as part of Baltimore's young rotation with a lot of potential. However, with Rodriguez expected to make only a little over league minimum and Kremer expected to make around $2 million next year, there's very little chance the Orioles would be willing to cough up the $200 million or more it'll take to sign Yamamoto.

Josh Hader

This year's free agent class is filled with expensive starting pitchers. There are even fewer high-profile position players on the market, and then even fewer elite bullpen arms. The only of note is Josh Hader who, despite a very shaky 2022 for the Brewers and Padres, picked it up again in 2023 and reaffirmed his reputation as one of the best closers in baseball. For the Orioles, who will be sitting their own elite closer through 2024, Hader would be a perfect short-term contract to get them through endgames the same way Felix Bautista could.

However, it's highly unlikely that Hader would sign a short-term contract with the knowledge that he was merely a stand-in — this is, without a hefty price tag, which the Orioles wouldn't be able to slap on anyway. In September, Baltimore retained Bautista at an absolute steal of a rate: two years, $2 million. Even though his missing all of the 2024 season won't put them out of much money, it's highly likely that they'll sooner adapt one of their other bullpen arms to the closer role before signing someone new to fill in, much less someone who will be asking for as much money as Hader.

Cody Bellinger

In a free agent pool filled to the brim with pitchers, comeback kid Cody Bellinger is the year's most in-demand position player, and he'll certainly be the most expensive one. It makes sense; Bellinger seemed down and out after his incredible 2019 (.305/.406/.629 with a 7.8 fWAR), but found new life in Chicago and finished the season with a final line of .307/.356/.525, a 4.1 fWAR and — maybe most importantly — a very good argument for himself as the deserving recipient of a large contract this offseason.

Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays have things pretty locked up in the Orioles outfield in real life, same goes for Ryan Mountcastle at first base, but the entire premise of this exercise is wishful thinking anyway. If the Orioles could score Bellinger, Mullins might be the most vulnerable; despite being a defense reel in human form in 2022, he spent some of 2023 injured and only hit .233/.305/.416. Baltimore's outfield is in good hands as it is, though, even though Bellinger would be a great culture fit there and add some more power to their lineup.

Blake Snell

The addition of presumptive Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to the Orioles lineup could be the team's best answer to losing veteran Kyle Gibson this year, if they had the money to get him. Snell is six years younger than Gibson but has still put up more time in the major leagues than rotation highlights Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, and Grayson Rodriguez combined. Snell's Baseball Savant page is scary in and off itself; he ranks in the 100th percentile of pitching run value and breaking run value, in the 99th percentile of offspeed run value, as well as in the 98th percentile in K% and 4th percentile in BB%.

Snell is projected to make anywhere between $120 million and $200 million in these later years of his career, and based off of his performances particularly in the past two seasons, he deserves it. It would be great to have him at the head of a starting rotation that, based on what we've laid out here, would also include Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he's another big name that seems too far out of the Orioles' reach this offseason.

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5 free agents we wish the Orioles could afford