5 dream free agents the Orioles should target this offseason

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With the Orioles sputtering towards the finish line like a boat without a rudder, fans cannot help but look forward to much-needed reinforcements that David Rubenstein and Mike Elias will need to add during the off-season. Yes, the Orioles are battling significant injuries across the diamond. However, as the embarrassing 10-0 home loss to the Giants on Tuesday showed, the Orioles, who have now lost 8 of 10, need to target both offense and pitching this offseason.

Here are five free agents the Orioles should target to avoid the recent nosedive the 2024 season has taken.

5. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Houston Astros

While the Orioles will have Grayson Rodriguez back next season to form a solid 1-2 punch with Zach Eflin, they are unlikely to retain ace Corbin Burnes, whose late-season struggles have called a long-term contract into question. With Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells out for at least the beginning of next season, the Orioles will need at least one more dependable starter to plug in after Eflin and Rodriguez.

That could come in the form of Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi. With the Great Wall of Baltimore in left field, the Orioles would be wise to add another lefty to the rotation and Kikuchi's plus-stuff (he has averaged over one strikeout per inning since 2021) would play well in Baltimore. Kikuchi signed with the Jays in 2022 for 3 years $36M and will likely command another three-year deal that would take him through his age-36 season.

Contract Prediction: 3 years, $54M

4. Joc Pederson, DH, Arizona Diamondbacks

Although fans have grown fond of Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn, they simply have not been good enough this year. Despite being tagged as a power hitter, Mountcastle has endured a noticeable drop in power, going from 33 home runs in 2021 down to 22, 18, and only 13 in 2024. With respect to O'Hearn, while he enjoyed a strong start to the season, he has been ice cold of late and his 13 home runs and .739 OPS leave a lot to be desired at 1B/DH.

The 32-year-old Pederson, however, continues to mash. After signing a one-year, $9.5M contract with Arizona, Pederson is hitting .271 with 22 home runs, 61 RBIs, and a .914 OPS. Pederson could be an interesting replacement for O'Hearn if the Orioles choose to keep Mountcastle at first, as Pederson has been worth 2.8 WAR this year, his best since 2019 with the Dodgers.

The Orioles could also pursue Mets' DH J.D. Martinez, but Martinez's numbers - 16 home runs and a .735 OPS - are not much better than what the O's already have.

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $26M

3. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves

Fried has been a stalwart in the Braves' rotation since 2017, pitching in 19 total postseason games, and winning a World Series in 2021. However, some executives believe he is ready to move on. Fried is 9-10 with a 3.49 ERA this year but has pitched like an ace on multiple occasions. In 2022, Fried went 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA and finished second in the NL Cy Young voting (he also finished fifth in 2020). A three-time gold glover and three-time All Star, Fried would slot in perfectly atop the Orioles' rotation with Rodriguez and Eflin.

A quick note on Corbin Burnes, whom I predict the Orioles will allow to walk this offseason. If the numbers were the same, the Orioles would likely re-sign Burnes over Fried. Fried is a few months older than Burnes and his numbers, while strong, are a notch below Burnes'. However, many have predicted Burnes to sign a $300M contract which, given his recent struggles and downward trend, would be too much of a risk.

Contract Prediction: 6 years, $175M

2. Anthony Santander, RF, Baltimore Orioles

In their list of the top 50 free agents, The Athletic calls Anthony Santander "the most underrated free agent in this class." The real question is whether the 2024 version of Anthony Santander - who has mashed 41 home runs and has an OPS over .800 - is the version that we will see for the next few years. Santander has been trending up the last few seasons: his OPS has increased every year since 2022, and his home run totals of the last three seasons - 33, 28, and 41 - show that even if Santander does not hit over 40 every year, he is a good bet to reach 30 home runs. His hard hit rates of 43.3%, 56%, and 42.4% the last three years are positive too.

While many other suitors will line up to try and snag the 29 year-old, the Orioles would be smart to at least try to keep Tony Taters in Baltimore.

Contract Prediction: 5 years, $100M

1. Juan Soto, New York Yankees, RF

It's rare that a player as good and as young as Juan Soto hits the free agent market. Recent examples include Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, though Soto is better than both. His accolades speak for themselves: a career .954 OPS, two seasons above 7 WAR, and again, he is only 25. While the idea of Soto in orange and black seems far fetched, these are not the Angelos-owned Orioles anymore. At least one well-respected baseball journalist has floated the idea, and the addition of Soto would have the added bonus of stealing him from the rival Yankees.

Keep in mind that Soto turned down a 15 year, $440M deal from the Nationals a few years ago, and is likely to secure the second biggest contract in baseball history, only trailing two-way star Shohei Ohtani's 10 year, $700M deal. But players like Juan Soto don't come around often. With the Orioles in the thick of their competitive window, the idea of Soto launching balls onto Eutaw Street as a member of the Orioles is hard not to dream about.

Contract Prediction: 13 years, $624M, opt out after years 2, 3, 5, and 8

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