Orioles usual trade deadline strategy will be heavily impacted by the upcoming CBA negotiation

The upcoming CBA negotiation between the MLBPA and the owners is constantly looming over the 2026 season. Just a few weeks ago, both sides put out their proposals for the next CBA, and it was clear they are nowhere near any sort of agreement or compromise. In fact, the two proposals barely even resembled each other. One of the big questions the upcoming negotiation brings regarding the 2026 season is: how will it affect the way teams approach the trade deadline?

With the owners being dead set on getting a salary cap and the players making it clear that they view a salary cap as a total non-starter, it opens up the real possibility that for the first time in many years, MLB could miss games or even worse that the entire 2027 season could be lost.

With how baseball is doing right now, losing a full season and killing all the momentum built up from the last two seasons would be incredibly foolish and self-destructive. If both sides would certainly prefer not to lose a full season, but money has a way of making people do things that are incredibly foolish and self-destructive.

So even if you choose to be optimistic and believe that cooler heads will prevail and the two sides will find a way to compromise before any games are lost, you have to acknowledge that a lost season is a possibility.

The Orioles have the opportunity to take a risk where other teams aren't willing

That being the case changes the math on how aggressive some teams are going to be at this trade deadline, including the Baltimore Orioles. In the past, when the Orioles have been buyers at the deadline, one thing they've done is prioritize trade targets with multiple years of control. In 2024, they traded for Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Dominguez. All of them had at least another year under contract and were brought in to help with the rest of the 2024 season, as well as the following 2025 season.

That kind of move becomes riskier if a lockout threatens to erase the 2027 season. Several of the hottest trade targets this deadline have an extra year of control. This makes them more valuable trade chips and more expensive to acquire.

If you gave up a prospect haul for a starter like Sandy Alcatara based on the idea that you would get him for this season and next season, and then the 2027 season doesn't happen, and you ended up paying a premium for a rental that would be hard to stomach.

With the Orioles' conservative approach to pretty much every aspect of team building, it's hard to see them rolling the dice on a risk like that, but if they were willing to be a little brave, where there is risk, there is also opportunity.

The teams that would like to sell at the deadline want to get as much value for their trade pieces as possible. In most cases, they are hoping that the prospects they get back from selling off quality veterans with multiple years of control will propel them from the bottom of the standings back up into contention. In some aspects, a lockout is just as inconvenient for the sellers as the buyers because it robs them of the opportunity to take advantage of desperate teams who want to win now.

If the market is soft on these players because a bunch of teams that would be buyers are scared to buy before a lockout, the Orioles could swoop in and get these players for less than they would typically cost.

In an American League where the majority of the teams are clumped around the middle, struggling to get above .500, the difference could very well come down to who is willing to take a risk at this deadline and really improve their roster.

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