Orioles think their rotation is underrated, but there are real questions to answer

The Baltimore Orioles have been much maligned for their failure to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter after telling the media that it was their number one priority of the offseason. Orioles fans are tired of every year being the team with the great lineup and the wobbly rotation. However, new Oriole pitcher Chris Bassitt isn't worried about the rotation.  

While talking with MLB's Jake Rill, Bassitt said, “I think we’re very underrated. The games will tell, but I’m excited, for sure. We have the guys. I’m not going to get too excited about it because I don’t want to make no headlines. I’d rather be a stealth bomber, so to speak, and not have anybody talk about us, just surprise people, I guess. I’m excited, yeah.”

Orioles' rotation has a high ceiling, but an equally low floor

Bassitt is not wrong to be excited about the Orioles rotation. The Orioles have talented pitchers at the top of this rotation, but they all come with questions. Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, and even Zach Eflin have the potential to provide top-half-of-the-rotation production, but each of them comes with a make-or-break question.

1. How will Kyle Bradish bounce back from Tommy John surgery?

Last year, Sandy Alcantara and Spencer Strider were among the most notable names coming back from Tommy John. They both struggled mightily, posting ERAs in the mid-4s and 5s. Jacob deGrom was the success story of last season, posting a sub-3 ERA in 172 innings, although it's worth noting that he posted a career-worst season by FIP and K/9, so he was diminished compared to his past self.

If Bradish's recovery looks like deGrom's, the Orioles will be in good shape. If he's more like Alcantara and Strider, it'll be tough sledding. Fortunately for the Orioles, Bradish's recovery timeline is similar to deGrom's, who also got back for a couple of starts the year before his full-season return. There are reasons to be optimistic, but relying on him to be the ace of the rotation is a lot of stress to put on an arm that's in recovery.

2. Can Trevor Rogers pitch a full season?

This will be Rogers' seventh big league season; he has pitched a full starter's workload in none of the previous six seasons. It does seem like most of the health concerns that were holding Rogers back for years may be behind him, but it does feel a tad ambitious to declare that he will be a tent pole of the Orioles rotation for an entire season when he has just never done that.

Rogers will almost certainly regress from the 1.81 ERA he posted last season, but even if his ERA rises  into the upper threes, that won't be as big a problem as Rogers missing time with an injury. The Orioles need Rogers to stay healthy, even if he pitches a little worse.

3. Can Shane Baz finally breakout?

Shane Baz was a top pitching prospect for a long time and flashed serious potential in his first call-up in 2021. Since then, injury and underperformance have taken the shine off him. Baz has been mostly healthy since 2024, so the injury struggles seem to be behind him; all that's left is for the talent to shine through.

Last season, Baz especially struggled in Tampa's temporary home at the Yankees' spring training facility, but his road numbers were closer to what his talent level would suggest. If the Orioles can get a full-season Baz breakout, he could be the best pitcher on the team and make the front office look really smart for trading for him before the breakout rather than after it.

4. Will Zach Eflin look like his pre-injury self?

In 2023, Zach Eflin finished sixth in the AL Cy Young. In 2024, he gave the Orioles nine straight starts of 5+ innings with three or fewer runs surrendered. In 2025, he was terrible and ended up needing serious back surgery. If the back injury was the reason for the struggles and now that it's better, Eflin is his pre-injury self, then the Orioles have a top-half-of-the-rotation starter on a bargain contract.