Orioles’ sudden Kyle Bradish contract news creates intrigue before trade deadline

The Baltimore Orioles have signed starter Kyle Bradish to a five-year extension and, in doing so, have taken a major step in the right direction in building their rotation of the future. Starting pitching has been the Baltimore Orioles' Achilles' heel for the entire Mike Elias era, and over the past two seasons that weakness has held the Orioles back from being the contender that they promised to be following a long, painful rebuild. The stated plan of the Orioles' rebuild was to draft the hitting and then buy the pitching; this is a plan that has proven to be more difficult than the Orioles expected. That being the case, locking up Bradish on a long-term extension that lines up perfectly with the other big contracts the Orioles have signed is a major win for a team that desperately needs a major win in the pitching department.

The contract is a five-year $90 million extension that starts next season through 2031. It buys out two years of arbitration and three years of free agency. Those will be Bradish's ages 30-34 seasons. The pitcher aging curve is less predictable than the aging curve for hitters and more dependent on injuries, but assuming moderate health for Bradish, this means that Bradish will be with the Orioles for the entirety of his prime.

The Orioles comitted to Kyle Bradish and the present

Similar to the extension that Shane Baz signed, the amount the Orioles will pay Bradish will gradually escalate every season. Over the course of the contract, he'll make $10, $13. $17, $22, and $28 million.

With how much free agent pitchers cost, at that price, if Bradish can continue to put up about 3 WAR per season like he's on pace to do this year, he'll be well worth the money. If he can tap into the healthy 2023 version of himself, this contract will be a steal for the Orioles. This is a no-brainer win for the Orioles, and for Bradish it's a good deal as well, as he was set to hit free agency at 32 years old, which is not an age where you see a lot of pitchers get handed big money deals. It's a win-win.

When Bradish has been healthy, he's been a very effective starter, and Orioles fans should be excited at the prospect of having him on the team for five more seasons instead of just two. Perhaps more exciting, however, is what this extension signals about the Orioles' intentions for contending in the immediate future.

With how the Orioles have disappointed this season and the season prior, there was some chatter about them potentially having to take a step back and sell at this deadline. The extension that the Orioles signed Bradish to makes it very clear that the Orioles' front office views the next five years as their definite contention window and is even more committed to that window than they have ever been to a window previously.

The Orioles have now signed Samuel Basallo, Pete Alonso, Shane Baz, and now Kyle Bradish to multi-year contracts totaling a combined value of $398 million that extend through this late 2020s and early 2030s window of Orioles baseball. Bradish now joins Baz as two arms that the Orioles can count on in the middle of their rotation for the next four to five years at very reasonable price points. Both Bradish and Baz are solid middle-of-the-rotation arms as is, but both of them clearly have the talent to take another step and be even better. It's an excellent base on which the Orioles front office could build a competitive rotation.

With how committed the Orioles are to the present and immediate future of this team, it now feels more likely than ever that they are going to attempt to buy their way back into contention at the upcoming trade deadline rather than shy away and sell.

It'll be interesting to see what buying looks like for an Orioles team just a couple games out of the playoffs. In the past, when the Orioles have been in a position to buy, they have dramatically underwhelmed fans and experts with their trade deadline hauls. It would be interesting if it's a team that isn't nearly as good that gets the front office to be their most active at the deadline ever.

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