Orioles slow start is pushing them toward surprise move nobody expected

The Baltimore Orioles have not gotten off to the hot start that they needed. They were gifted 18 straight games to start the season against teams that had missed the playoffs the season before and barely managed to get through that stretch with a 9-9 record. Against playoff teams from last season, they are 2-8. This team, as constructed, is not good enough to accomplish their stated goal of competing for the division and making the playoffs.

This Orioles team has shown many flaws, but one is making it hardest for them to stack wins: their rotation. After their most recent loss to the Yankees, the Orioles' rotation ranks 27th in baseball in ERA, 29th in opponents' batting average, and 28th in WHIP. Facing Orioles pitching has been a cure-all for bad offenses.

To their credit, if you look at some of the more predictive stats, the Orioles rotation doesn't look that bad. They rank 22nd in FIP, 17th in SIERA, and 20th in xERA. So you could say they've been a little unlucky. However, as far as turning around this season, hoping that the ball starts bouncing your way so that you can pitch like the 20th-best rotation in the league instead of the 27th-best isn't going to cut it.

The Orioles need to look outside their organization to solve their pitching problem

The Orioles internal starting pitching options are not going to save them. If the Orioles want to turn this season around before it slips away in mid-May, they are going to have to pull off the rare early-season trade.

Early-season trades are not common for a reason. At this point in the season, most teams that have any sort of playoff aspirations aren't so far out of contention that they're looking to sell, and most of the teams that know they are bad either traded away their best players in the offseason or are waiting until the trade deadline to benefit from a bidding war.

What you have to do to make one of these trades happen is compensate the team parting with the player for the opportunity cost of not being able to dangle their player at the trade deadline. So it would be expensive, and any trade-value model would probably say no-go, but given where the Orioles are in their season, overpaying to get some help now is just what they need.

So with that in mind, here are two trade targets the Orioles could try to pry away from their teams.

1. Sandy Alcantara

This would be the "Mike Elias has been told he's fired if the Orioles don't make the playoffs move", because this would cost a lot. Alcantara is now two and a half years removed from Tommy John surgery, and he appears to have returned to his Cy Young form. With how he's pitching, combined with the fact that he is under team control for another season after this, he is expected to be the most coveted trade target at this year's deadline.

That being the case, the Orioles would have to back up the prospect Brink’s Truck to get the Marlins to agree to part with their best trade chip months before they have to. It would probably cost major league-ready talent like Coby Mayo, along with a handful of the Orioles top 10 prospects.

2. Drew Rasmussen

The Orioles and Rays have already come together on multiple trades for starting pitchers over the last few years. So they definitely have each other's number, and their negotiating styles seem to fit together. The Rays like to get a high quantity of prospects in their trades, and Mike Elias would rather trade a gaggle of solid prospects than any of his top five.

Rasmussen has been one of the best pitchers in baseball when he's been healthy over the last six seasons now. Unfortunately for Rasmussen and the Rays, that hasn't been that often. He's healthy to start this season, though, and he looks as effective as ever. The Rays are in second in the AL East but don't have the talent or the ambition to push in the chips for this season. Trading Rasmussen, who is a free agent after 2027, would be much closer to the Rays' M.O. than going all in on this season. Assuming there are any prospects in the Orioles system that the Rays want after the Baz trade, Elias should be able to make this deal happen.

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