Orioles should explore trade for Guardians' duo at next week's winter meetings

The Baltimore Orioles have been clear on their priorities heading into the 2024 Winter Meetings in Dallas: starting pitching, a right-handed hitting outfielder, and backup catcher. And while perhaps not at the top of their list, the Orioles would be wise to consider an opportunity to add an impact, left-handed bat to take aim at the Warehouse.

Accordingly, news that the Cleveland Guardians are looking to trade slugging first baseman Josh Naylor and right-handed-hitting outfielder Lane Thomas should pique the Orioles' interest. This is especially true with the likely departure of Anthony Santander and his 44 home runs this winter.

As I have previously written, the Orioles should be looking to upgrade at first base, with incumbent Ryan Mountcastle's power numbers on a steep decline over the past few seasons. In 2024, Mountcastle hit just 13 home runs en route to just 1.6 fWAR. On the contrary, Naylor was a first-time All-Star in 2024, batting .243 with 31 home runs, a .776 OPS, and a solid 2.3 fWAR. FanGraphs predicts an even stronger 2025 for the hulking first baseman: a .794 OPS and 2.5 WAR, as opposed to a .743 OPS and 1.6 WAR for Mountcastle.

Thomas would also fit the bill for the Orioles as they look to add a right-handed hitting outfielder. Thomas, who would essentially be replacing Austin Hays/Austin Slater from 2024, posted a .709 OPS with 15 home runs and 1.3 fWAR, perfectly respectable for a spot starter/fourth outfielder. Indeed, Thomas, who hit 28 home runs for the Nationals in 2023, could conceivably platoon with Heston Kjerstad in right field, a pairing that could come close to replacing Santander's production at a fraction of the cost.

The Orioles would hope that Cleveland's price tag for the two free agents to-be would not be too exorbitant, considering the Guardians are looking to trade them to shed salary. However, the Guardians, fresh off a trip to the ALCS, would likely want Major League-ready pieces back for Naylor and Thomas.

Such a deal could include the Guardians taking a chance on Mountcastle, who has two years left of team control and is projected at $6.6 million in arbitration (half of what Naylor is projected at). At worst, Mountcastle could platoon with young lefty first-baseman Kyle Manzardo, who made waves for the Guardians in the playoffs last season.

The Orioles should consider acquiring Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas at next week's Winter Meetings

The Guardians would also likely seek Major League-ready pitching, as their rotation behind ace Tanner Bibee and righties Gavin Williams and Ben Lively is a bit thin. The Guardians could demand young lefty Cade Povich or even established starter Dean Kremer (projected at $3.5 million in arbitration), as well as a top 10 prospect such as Jud Fabian to make the deal work.

The potential downside to a one-stop shop in Cleveland is the fact that both Naylor and Thomas are free agents at the end of the year. In addition, while the Guardians would want pitching, the Orioles' starting pitching depth is questionable right now, with Corbin Burnes potentially fleeing the nest via free agency and Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells on the IL for at least the beginning of 2025.

However, there is no denying that both players would improve the Orioles' offense. And if Mike Elias is interested in checking two potential items off his shopping list with one trade, he should at least meet the Guardians' brass for a cup of coffee next week in Dallas to explore whether such a deal is possible.