Orioles rookie’s surprising hot start actually looks real despite some red flags

Coming into the 2025 season, the Baltimore Orioles were expected to rely on some very young players. Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Hesto Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, and others were considered crucial pieces for the Orioles' present and future. One name that almost certainly wasn't on most fans' radars was infielder Jeremiah Jackson.

Baltimore signed Jackson as a minor league free agent last November after stints with the Angels and Mets. At one point, Jackson was a prospect of note with LA after they selected him with their second-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. However, after multiple seasons of struggling to make consistent contact and a lot of strikeouts in 2023 and 2024, Jackson found himself needing to make a really good impression with the Orioles to keep his professional career going.

After getting called up to the majors at the trade deadline, Jackson has done just that, as he has more than held his own. In fact, Jackson is thriving so much right now that many wonder if he can keep this up. While that might be a stretch, there is reason to believe that he can remain a productive big leaguer going forward.

Jeremiah Jackson's underlying metrics show a guy who could keep this up, but only if he can make better swing decisions

With just 101 plate appearances under his belt as of September 2, it would be easy and, frankly, understandable to just write off Jackson's hit streak and .876 OPS so far as small-sample-size weirdness. However, a closer look reveals a much more complicated picture.

While we do have limited data from Jackson, it is very clear that he consistently hits the ball hard. Very hard. Assuming he had enough at-bats to qualify, Jackson would rank in the top 25% or so in average exit velocity and among MLB's elite in hard hit percentage at 49.3%. The one thing that most big leaguers have to do is consistently impact the ball, and Jackson is already showing he can do that.

However, Jackson does have some warts. While the quality of his contact is very good, Jackson's swing decisions leave a lot to be desired. He strikes out too much, barely walks at all, and his chase percentage and whiff percentage both rank from below average to quite poor. Professional pitchers can and will take advantage of that aggression out of the zone if he can't make an adjustment.

Whether or not Jackson can keep what he is doing up is kind of irrelevant in a lot of ways. In theory, Jackson doesn't need to be a guy who carries the Orioles' offense if everyone else is doing their jobs. Whatever the future holds for him, it does appear as though he at least has some of the right tools to stick in the majors.

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