The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox are the two hottest teams in baseball. The two teams will enter today's matchup on a combined winning streak of 20 games. The Sox's 13-game winning streak has vaulted them up the standings and into the final Wild Card spot. The Orioles' seven-game winning streak has them now two games under .500 and just two games back of the Sox for that playoff spot. If the Orioles were to sweep the Red Sox, they would take over that coveted Wild Card spot. On the other hand, a Red Sox sweep would be catastrophic to the Orioles' playoff hopes.
Besides the high stakes for both sides, what makes this series compelling is the fact that the result will hinge on the Red Sox's greatest strength going up against the Orioles' greatest weakness. The Red Sox have lined up two of their young lefties to face an Orioles team that has struggled to hit lefties for years now. The one game that the Sox aren't confirmed to be starting a lefty is currently TBA and will either be lefty Ranger Suarez returning from the IL or a bullpen game featuring up to three lefty relievers. Either way, this series is going to be a major test for the Orioles.
It's strength against weakness in the Orioles next series
The Orioles know that they struggle against left-handed pitching and have thrown a lot of resources at the wall trying to find a solution. They signed Tyler O'Neill and traded for Taylor Ward in back-to-back offseasons, and although Pete Alonso is a career reverse-splits hitter, he still has really good numbers against left-handed pitching. Despite all of these right-handed bats being brought in, the problem has persisted. Here are all the currently rostered Orioles wRC+ against lefties this season (Christian Ecarnacion-Strand has only played in one game, so his number is for his career):
Coby Mayo: 190
Taylor Ward: 166
Jackson Holliday: 118
Adley Rutschman: 100
Sam Huff: 96
Pete Alonso: 85
Gunnar Henderson: 84
Jeremiah Jackson: 79
Tyler O'Neill: 74
Leody Taveras: 52
Samuel Basallo: 41
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 25
Dylan Beavers: 7
Colton Cowser: 2
Looking at these numbers, you can see how it would be hard for manager Craig Albernaz to arrange these players into a competitive lineup when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound.
Mayo and Ward are going to be very important to the Orioles' success this week. They are statistically the Orioles' best bet at doing damage against the Red Sox avalanche of lefty arms. If the Orioles are smart, they'll have both of them batting at the top of the order to get them as many at-bats as possible in this series.
Two hitters alone won't be enough, though; if the Orioles are going to have any shot at competing with the red-hot Sox, they'll need at least one, if not multiple, other hitters to step up. The two best candidates to step up are two of their highest-paid players, Pete Alonso and Tyler O'Neill.
Alonso has been the Orioles' best hitter this season, so it feels a little odd to be demanding that he step up, but he has undeniably struggled against lefties in a way that is atypical for him, and this is a moment where the Orioles need him to break out of this strange reverse-splits slump.
O'Neill has played so poorly since joining the Orioles that asking him to step up feels laughable, but since the start of June, O'Neill has hit .262/.338/.541 and is coming off an Astros series where he was a hero both in the field and at the plate. He will undoubtedly start every game this series against his former team and will have a chance to build on his solid stretch, and after being much maligned for most of his Orioles tenure, could save the season.
If the lefty-mashing duo of Mayo and Ward becomes the lefty-mashing quartet of Mayo, Ward, Alonso, and O'Neill, the Orioles are going to win this series. If those guys aren't able to step up, then it could be a disappointing week up in Boston.
