Orioles need to adjust their longstanding strategy ahead of this years draft

For years, the Baltimore Orioles ' team-building strategy could be summarized as "draft the hitting and buy the pitching". Over the last eight years, the Orioles have undoubtedly done a good job drafting the hitting. From 2019 to 2022, nine of the Orioles 13 draft picks taken in the first two rounds have made the majors, all of them position players.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, the "buy the pitching" part of the plan has been harder than they anticipated. They have either not been able or not been willing to swing a big trade, exchanging multiple top position player prospects for a controllable top of the rotation starter, the way that the Astros were able to do coming out of their rebuild. They have also not been able to come to terms with any of the major free agent pitchers that have been available over the last few years.

With that being the case, it's time for the Orioles to adjust their strategy and try their hand at drafting pitching in the first round of the draft. Specifically, they should be looking to draft a pitcher who has the potential to rise quickly through the minors and begin helping the Orioles win at the major league level.

The Orioles goal for this draft should be to take the best college pitcher available

This year's draft class does not feature the strongest class of college pitchers, with most of the college arms projected to be first-round picks being mocked much more consistently in the late teens and early 20s than up near the 7th pick, where the Orioles are drafting. The only arm projected to go before the Orioles pick is Jackson Flora out of UCSB, and even that varies mock to mock.

Flora has risen above all the other arms in this draft class with his latest excellent season. So far this year, he's put up an ERA of 1.06 with 133 Ks in 102 innings.

If Flora falls to the Orioles at seven, they shouldn't hesitate to pick him. If they feel like he might go just a pick or two ahead of where they are drafting, they should be willing to dangle an overslot bonus if they think that would help their chances of getting their hands on the best pitcher in the draft.

Once you get past Flora, the other arms projected to be first-round picks would be overdrafted at the seventh pick, but that doesn't rule the Orioles out of taking them there. If they were to take one of the non-Flora college pitchers, they could sign them with an underslot bonus and have more money to take big swings later in the draft.

Going underslot can be a little disappointing because it means you're not using your first round draft position to its full potential, but if done right, it can result in a very strong draft class. This wouldn't be the first time the Orioles have gone underslot on a big first-round draft pick. In 2020 and 2021, they went well underslot, taking Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser with the second and fifth picks of the draft. So philosophically, the Orioles would not be opposed to using a similar strategy and taking a first-round pitcher with an underslot draft bonus.

The question then would be who to use it on.

Most mocks have Florida starter Liam Peterson as the second pitcher off the board, and of the non-Flora starters, he is seen as the most pro ready arm. He's a big, powerful right-hander, and when you watch him, you can see the vision for him being successful at the big league level. He's struck out over 30% of the batters he faced this year.

He struggled from a run prevention standpoint, which is kind of the whole point of pitching, so that's somewhat concerning, but college ERA doesn't matter nearly as much as the tools a pitcher possesses, and Peterson has the tools.

After a stellar sophomore season where Flukey pitched over 100 innings and struck out 118 batters, he was supposed to be one of the top picks in the draft. An injury-riddled junior year has taken the shine off of him, or if you're the Orioles, provided you with an opportunity to target a high ceiling player at a discount.

Flukey's injury was not to the elbow or the shoulder or one of the other vital body parts that pitchers are always worried about; it was a rib injury. Once that has healed, there shouldn't be too much concern for him going forward, and he should return to what he looked like as a Sophomore with the added bonus of not having put any more wear and tear on his arm.

There are some other late risers, as the college season has not quite come to a close, but it would be surprising if the Orioles took a gamble on someone like Cole Carlon or Hunter Dietz. It will be worthwhile for them to keep their options open when it comes to the arms they could take in the upcoming draft.

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