Orioles first matchup with the Blue Jays could decide both team's seasons

The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays have not had the season they would have hoped for so far. Both teams were aggressive in the offseason and began the year with hopes of winning the division and contending for a World Series; now, both find themselves multiple games under .500 and on the outside looking in on the playoff picture. Fortunately for these two slumping bird teams, most of the American League is also under .500, so the playoffs are not too far out of reach, but with these division rivals meeting up this weekend for the first time this season for a four-game set, either team could basically end the other's season with a sweep.

The Orioles have not fared well in their first series against divisional opponents this year. In their first series against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, they are 1-9 with a -57 run differential. That is very bad. If they perform like that against the Blue Jays this weekend, that would be the final nail in the coffin for this Orioles season.

The Baltimore Orioles can't afford to lose this series

There is reason to believe, however, that this series will be different. First of all, this series is at home. The Orioles have been a much better home team than a road team this year. They have a winning record at home and are 6-3 against divisional opponents at Camden Yards.

It also goes in the Orioles' favour that several of their key players are either busting out of season-long slumps or are back from injury. Gunnar Henderson has an .829 OPS over his last 12 games. Colton Cowser is slashing .296/.367/.630 since May 9th, and Jackson Holliday has returned and added a level of offensive competence to the bottom of the Orioles batting order that was previously missing.

It's not just offensive players who have looked better of late. Shane Baz has begun to turn his season around, pitching to a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts, and he's set to make a start against the Jays. Also, Brandon Young is coming off his best start of the season, and he'll face the Blue Jays as well.

All together, this is a much better Orioles team than what the previous AL East opponents got to face.

The one real area of concern is that Chris Bassitt and Trevor Rogers' turns are coming up in the rotation this series, and they have been tough watches for the past few weeks. Bassitt has a 5.59 ERA in his last four starts, and Rogers has a 12.86 ERA in his last four starts. Unless those two really step it up, their two starts against the Blue Jays will be tough to win. Hopefully, Rogers can identify what has made him so hittable recently, and Bassitt finds an extra gear against his old team.

If the Orioles can take three out of four or sweep, they'll likely wake up on Monday in a playoff spot. Which, after the way the season looked like it was going 10 days ago, would feel like a miracle. That would be great, but they absolutely cannot afford to allow the inverse to happen, or they'll be right back in the hole they'd worked so hard to climb out of.

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