Orioles' first four draft selections show that Mike Elias does not feel like he's on the hot seat

The Baltimore Orioles are currently underperforming for the second year in a row. When the Orioles struggled in 2025, they responded by completely overhauling the coaching staff. Manager Brandon Hyde was fired midseason, and most of his staff was shown the door at the end of the year. When the struggles followed the Orioles into the 2026 season, it seemed only logical that the front office would begin to feel some heat.

As much as fans may hope that Mike Elias' seat is getting warm, the picks the Orioles made indicated just the opposite. The four picks that the Orioles made on Day One of the draft telegraphed that the front office still feels like they have a long runway to success.

Executives can talk all they want about "doing what is right for the team," but when a GM can tell they are going to be fired if the team doesn't improve, it's only natural that the moves they make become focused on improving the team in the present.

This was the Orioles most future facing draft in years

Over the past few years, the journey from the MLB draft to the big leagues has gotten shorter and shorter. Three first-round picks from the 2024 draft are 2026 All-Stars. If Rubenstein had given Elias any indication that his job security was dependent on the Orioles turning things around quickly, the Orioles would have used their four picks on players much closer to the MLB level. Instead, they took a group of prospects that are going to need lots of time before they'll be impacting winning at the big league level.

At the number seven pick, the Orioles had the option to take Drew Burress, a 22-year-old college outfielder. Burress is the kind of high-floor college bat that could be in the majors at some point next season. For a GM on the hot seat, the opportunity to draft a player that could be in the majors very quickly would be hard to pass up. The Orioles selected high schooler Eric Booth Jr., who just turned 18 last week. Booth Jr. has much more impressive tools than Burress but will require much more time to mature and develop before he's ready for the big leagues.

There is a lot of delayed gratification in drafting a high schooler instead of a college bat. This is the kind of pick you make when you think you're going to be around three to four years from now, when Booth Jr. makes his MLB debut.

There were opportunities for the Orioles to draft win-now talent at their later picks as well. When the Orioles were picking at 46, USC pitcher Mason Edwards was still on the board. Edwards has excellent stuff and is the kind of pitcher that could be up in the big leagues next year in a bullpen role if the Orioles wanted. That's the kind of move a desperate front office might make in the second round of the draft. Instead, the Orioles stayed on brand and drafted Ty Head.

The Orioles' third selection was an underslot college arm in Dominic Voelgele. That's a play to free up more money to spend on pricey high school players later in the draft, also very forward-looking. With the Orioles' fourth pick of the day, they took one of the best high school athletes in the draft, Kevin Roberts Jr., who is a total development project.

No sign of panic or urgency at any step of the way for the Orioles. If anything, this was their most development-minded and forward-looking draft in years. All signs point to a front office that feels very secure in its place.

It's possible that David Rubenstein is keeping his cards close to his chest. As a Private Equity man, he certainly has experience coming into a company and strategically clearing out leftover executives. Maybe he knows that a panicked front office trying to save their jobs would make things worse and is making sure that Elias keeps going about business as usual before letting him go. It's far more likely, however, that Rubenstein fully believes in his current front office and has let them know that they don't have to worry about losing their jobs over a couple of disappointing seasons.

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