Orioles could roll the dice on an injured ace at this year's trade deadline

Becuase of how congested the standings are in both the National and American Leagues, there are not going to be many teams selling at this year's deadline. With the Orioles steadily falling out of the playoff race, they have the opportunity to be sellers at the deadline and use other teams' desperation to contend this year as leverage in order to set themselves up for the future. One team that may be especially desperate to add talent at this year's deadline is the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves got off to a hot start this season and looked as though they were going to run away with their division and return to their previous status as annual contenders in the National League. Injuries to several of their key players have slowed them down, and now, as they approach the All-Star break, the Philadelphia Phillies are within striking distance of them.

The biggest problem for the Braves is that they've suffered several serious injuries to their rotation. They've gotten themselves into a position where they are fully reliant on Martin Perez and Bryce Elder to maintain elite results while their peripheral numbers scream that they are due for regression and their other starters aren't exactly paragons of durability. They've also been dealing with another Ronald Acuna Jr. injury.

The Orioles have multiple rental pieces that would bolster the parts of the Braves roster most impacted by injury; they could send over Trevor Rogers to help with the rotation, Taylor Ward to help in the outfield, and Ryan Helsley to help in the bullpen. The question is, would the Braves be willing to part with the kind of piece that the Orioles will be looking for at this year's deadline: controllable pitching, in this case Spencer Strider.

The Orioles could give Spencer Strider a much softer landing as he returns from injury

Trading Strider might sound extreme, as he was very recently considered a key part of this Braves core, and when he signed his extension, it seemed like the Braves had gotten a great deal on a great pitcher. Unfortunately for the Braves and Strider, he blew out his elbow in early 2024, and although he made it back for the 2025 season, he never looked like himself, and those struggles have followed him into this season.

Strider has struggled with his command and to maintain his velocity all season and recently hit the IL with elbow inflammation. The latest update is that he's been shut down for the next four weeks, when there will be a checkup to see if he can resume throwing. That's a lot of time to miss during a valuable season, and with the results of that checkup in the air, there is a risk that he'll need some kind of follow-up procedure and miss the rest of the season.

At this point, the best-case scenario is that Strider needs a long runway to get to where he can contribute to the Braves contending this season. If he does manage to return but continues to struggle, then he might as well not return at all.

This puts the Braves in a tough spot where their need to compete and win now does not line up with their desire to reintegrate Strider back into the rotation. This is where the Orioles come in. They can offer the Braves a handful of win-now players that fit with their desire to contend this season, and they can take back Strider and bring him into a situation where there is no pressure to come back guns a blazing.

In Baltimore, Strider would be able to ease back into form. If his checkup comes and the best thing for him is to get a cleanup procedure on his elbow, then the Orioles would have no problem with that. If he comes back this season and has a bunch of short starts while he tries to get his command back, it wouldn't matter. For the rest of 2026, all that would matter for Strider would be getting ready for 2027.

The idea behind this trade is that the Orioles are taking on the risk that Spencer Strider might not ever be the guy he was in 2023. If he were to finally get healthy for 2027, the Orioles would have the ace they've been missing for years, and if he's cooked, then the Orioles would be stuck holding the bag on the rest of his contract (2 years, $44 million). The most likely outcome is that he does get healthy but is never quite that guy again and balances out to a high threes to low fours ERA kind of pitcher, which would be a little disappointing considering the potential but at that price point ultimately still a positive.

The trick will be getting the Braves to take the deal. Obviously, based on what Strider has done since signing his extension, there is probably some buyer's remorse there, but the same potential that makes Strider an interesting target for the Orioles would also make the Braves interested in retaining him. The burden would be on the Orioles to put enough on the table that the Braves would be willing to give up on that potential. It was previously mentioned that the Orioles have a trio of win-now rentals that match the Braves' need; maybe the Orioles would have to pay down their contracts, or add some prospect capital, or take back a salary that the Braves don't want anymore.

This may all sound like a lot of hoops to jump through, but it is the kind of trade the Orioles should be looking to make at this deadline if they want to set themselves up better for next season.

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