Orioles and Giants could be each other's solution with this swap of problematic contracts

Tyler O'Neill's tenure with the Baltimore Orioles has been a disaster. The Orioles signed him to a three-year $49.5 million contract with an opt-out after the first year, betting that he would play well enough in his first season in Baltimore that he would opt out and they would have effectively signed a one-year contract. Instead, O'Neill had his most injury-plagued season ever (that's really saying something), and when he was healthy, he was maybe the worst player in all of baseball, putting -0.6 WAR in just 54 games. Needless to say, he picked up his player option, and now the Orioles are stuck with him through the end of 2027.

The main reason the Orioles were interested in O'Neill in the first place was his ability to hit lefties. His entire career, O'Neill had punished lefties, culminating in his contract year with Boston, where he slashed .313/.429/.750 against left-handed pitchers, making him one of the premier lefty mashers in the league. Since joining the Orioles, however, O'Neill has lost the ability to hit lefties.

This season, out of 248 players to have at least 30 PAs against left-handed pitchers, O'Neill ranked 247th in wRC+. He is slashing an incomprehensible .061/.162/.061 with an astonishing strikeout rate of 37.8%. By batting average, he's literally the easiest out in baseball for a left-handed pitcher. This, of course, hasn't stopped the Orioles from making sure that O'Neill is in the lineup every time there's a lefty on the mound.

Tyler O'Neill has been a negative player ever since he joined the Baltimore Orioles

On top of being bad at the one thing the Orioles signed him to be good at, O'Neill is also a bad defender and a bad base runner. By both fWAR and bWAR, he's a negative player for the second year in a row, and the Orioles are stuck paying him $16.5 million this season and $16.5 million next season. With him making that kind of money, he is going to be around no matter how bad he plays. Unless the Orioles get creative.

The San Francisco Giants are maybe the worst team in all of baseball, and the worst part is that their books are full of aging players on long, expensive contracts. The Giants have let it be known they are open to doing business to move these deals, but with how these players are playing, combined with the amount of money they're making, it's hard to imagine the Giants getting off any of these deals without paying down a disgusting amount of these contracts.

This is where the Orioles can come in. The Orioles and Giants could do a bad contract swap, and exchange Tyler O'Neill and Jung Hoo Lee, and both come out of the deal feeling like they're moving in the right direction.

On the Giants' end, they just need to get as many of these long, expensive contracts off the books as they can. O'Neill's contract is bad, but it is two years shorter than Lee's and cheaper on an AAV basis. The Giants would save $55 million over the next four years by swapping Lee for O'Neill. That's a lot of money that could go towards fixing the obvious flaws on the roster.

Remaining contract comparison (includes this year):

O'Neill: 2 years $33 million
Lee: 4 years $88.3 million

On the Orioles' side, they just can't afford to spend double-digit millions on a bad player. Even if Lee isn't worth the contract he's on, at least he wouldn't be an active detriment to the team on the field. In 2025, Lee was worth 2.4 fWAR, which is a four-WAR swing from what O'Neill was pacing for had he been healthy all year.

On field performance comparison (last two seasons):

O'Neill: -0.6 WAR, .189/.292/.351
Lee: 2.5 WAR, .267/.323/.402

A trade like this isn't without risks. Lee just left a game with back spasms. If the Orioles were to trade for him and then he spent the next three seasons injured off and on, that would be worse than just waiting out the rest of O'Neill's contract. So the Orioles will have to do their due diligence on Lee's medicals, but as long as there's nothing overly concerning, they should take advantage of any opportunity to dump O'Neill's contract.

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