Orioles' 2026 season depends on what version of Gunnar Henderson they get

It's the time of year when various media outlets begin publishing their projected standings. Among the most respected projection models are ZiPS and PECOTA, both of which project the Baltimore Orioles to finish third in the AL East.

ZiPS has the Orioles as the 5th-best team in the AL, which would get them a playoff spot. PECOTA has the Orioles as the 8th best team in the AL, which would not. These projection systems always play it a little safe; they don't typically project teams to win or lose 100 games, which happens every year, so there's no need to put too much stock in the exact win totals they put out. That said, they are valuable for informing fans where their team stands compared to the other teams in the division/league.

Whichever version of Gunnar Henderson the Baltimore Orioles get will determine how far they go

From these projections, it's clear to see that the margins between playoff teams and non-playoff teams are incredibly small, and the Orioles sit on a razor's edge between making or missing the playoffs.

The person who can add the most wins to the Orioles projection is Mike Elias, who at any time could trade for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but once the season starts, the person with the ability to add the most wins with their play is Gunnar Henderson.

Baked into the various projections is a very good Gunnar Henderson season.

Those are high projections; the vast majority of players will go their entire career without coming close to sniffing 6 fWAR in a season, but for Gunnar Henderson, that's what's expected of him. It's not hard to imagine a world where Gunnar doesn't reach these projections. He didn't reach 5 fWAR in 2025. In 2026, all it would take is an injury that keeps him out for a couple of weeks, or a slump that drags on for a month, and he could fall well short of that mark.

If Henderson has another good but not great season by his standard, the Orioles are not going to make the playoffs. It may not be fair to put that pressure solely on his shoulders, but that's what it means to be a superstar. The Yankees need Aaron Judge to put up superstar numbers, the Royals need Bobby Witt to put up superstar numbers, the Mets need Juan Soto to put up superstar numbers, and the Dodgers need... uh... well never mind the Dodgers. The point is that these players are Gunnar's peers in the league.

On the flip side, if Gunnar can rediscover his power stroke and be the player he was in 2024, that would give the Orioles a real shot at outperforming their team projections, and there's good reason to believe that he will.

Henderson suffered an injury at the very beginning of spring training last year, which caused him to miss all of spring training and the first few games of the season. When he came back, he was noticeably rusty on defense, and he also struggled against lefties for the first couple of months, which was not something he'd struggled with the previous season. The slow start is easily attributable to the injury and lack of reps.

In addition, Henderson recently revealed that he dealt with a shoulder impingement for most of the season, which helps explain his overall lack of power. Even when Gunnar was first adjusting to the majors in his rookie year, he was still popping balls over the fence with regularity. In 2025, Henderson experienced an unprecedented power drought. A healthy shoulder would go a long way to getting his power back.

Henderson put up a 7.9 fWAR season in 2024. Just a repetition of that would be huge for the Orioles, but it is within his ability to be even more impactful. In that season, he wasn't as aggressive stealing bases, and he also tailed off a bit towards the end of the season, so he left a bit of meat on the bone as far as what his true peak season could be. If he cleans off the bone, the Orioles will find themselves safely in the playoffs.