Orioles' 2026 payroll situation keeps starting pitcher hopes very much alive

After bringing back Zach Eflin, if the Baltimore Orioles do nothing else this offseason, it's been a successful winter for the front office. They've dramatically reshaped their starting lineup with the additions of Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso, fortified the backend of the bullpen with Ryan Helsley, and addressed the rotation with the trade for Shane Baz and Eflin's return.

Here's the thing: even with the moves the Orioles have made, they've left themselves room for more. The Orioles' 2025 payroll finished just over $175M. Taking into account the moves they've made, pre-arbitration players, and arbitration projections, the Orioles' 2026 payroll is approximately $187.6M.

Baltimore has increased their payroll by almost $12M, but they are still well below the first level of the luxury tax. The mark for the 2026 season is set at $244M. That's nearly $57M, which would be a level of aggression that, quite frankly, the Orioles have been afraid of showing for much of their existence.

Orioles' 2026 payroll outlook suggests another big-ticket move is possible

Modestly, there should be a reasonable expectation that with 2026 representing a season where their chips are pushed to the middle of the table, they should be willing to add another $20M-$30M in payroll before the start of the season.

With the calendar about to flip to 2026, the Orioles are one of the teams best position to take advantage of just how many established starting pitchers remain available on the free-agent market. It's a group that includes Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Zac Gallen.

As we get closer to spring training, the asking prices for these starting pitchers are going to drop. Imai's posting window closes on Friday, but that likely wouldn't be the move for the Orioles, considering some projections have him earning close to $150M with his first contract.

But it seems that the market has already stalled for Valdez, Suarez, and Gallen. Once projected to land a contract approaching $200M, it's hard to see such a deal still being on the table for Valdez. That creates an opening for the Orioles to be opportunistic and make another addition to their rotation as they look to put 2025 behind them.