Orioles' 2026 hopes may hinge on offseason addition nobody is talking about

Ryan Helsley was the Baltimore Orioles' big free agent addition in the bullpen this offseason. The Orioles signed him early and every projection of the Orioles' bullpen has included Helsley as the closer. For much of his career prior to last season, Helsley was the kind of reliever that his team could just pencil into the back of the bullpen and feel really good about it, but last year, Helsley really struggled to finish the season, and if those struggles carry over to 2026, then the Orioles bullpen is in a lot of trouble.

Throughout spring training, the Orioles have talked a lot about how they believe Ryan Helsley's struggles as a Met were mostly due to pitch tipping. That appears to be somewhat legitimate. On the broadcast, they're even showing side-by-sides of Helsley coming set when he was getting ready to throw different pitches last year. The Orioles are betting that with the pitch tipping under control, Helsley will bounce back to the All-Star closer he was in 2024.

If Ryan Helsley doesn't look like his old self, the Orioles' bullpen may be the very worst in the league

The pitch tipping wasn't the only concerning thing with Helsley's season, though. His fastball velo was inconsistent, and there were stretches, especially in the second half of the season, where he was sitting 96-97 mph. For Helsley, there is a big difference between sitting 96-97 and 99-101. It's early in spring training, so it may just be a case of Helsley ramping up, but his fastball so far as with Baltimore is sitting 95-96.

Helsley has still been very effective, and the new splitter he's working on seems like a promising addition to his arsenal, but part of what made him so effective in the past was that it was hard to be on time with his nasty slider and his fastball at 101. The slider is still nasty, but if the fastball is 95, then facing him is an easier proposition, even with a new splitter in the mix.

The Orioles are relying heavily on Helsley; they can't afford for him to pitch like he did for the Mets. They can't even afford for him to pitch the way he did for the Cardinals in early 2025. They need him to be a lockdown closer like he was in 2024. Anything short of that, and this Orioles bullpen will unravel; they're not equipped to deal with a Kittredge injury and Helsley underperforming.