One pitch could turn Orioles starter Kyle Gibson's season around

Kyle Gibson doesn't boast an overwhelming arsenal, but it is a deep one. None of Gibson's pitches exceed an average of 92 mph, according to Statcast. The veteran relies on deception, location, and varying pitch speed.

In the 2021 season, Gibson added a new offering to his repertoire: the sweeper. That aligns with when the sweeper really started to gain steam around the game, according to Major League Baseball's pitch type glossary. That season, the right-hander threw just 12 sweepers. In 2022, that number increased to 99, but it was still only delivered about 3.5% of the time. In 2023, however, it became Gibson's most reliable secondary offering.

According to Statcast's run value metric, which is defined as "the run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count," the sweeper was by far Gibson's most effective pitch. It had a run value of +11, and no other pitch had a run value greater than -3.

But the sweeper wasn't just Gibson's best, it was also one of the game's best. Among pitchers that threw at least 50 sweepers in 2023, the right-hander's +11 run value ranked second-best in all of baseball behind Sonny Gray. It's no wonder that Gibby threw it 15% more than in 2022.

Pitch usage is key to Kyle Gibson's performance

Last season, the sweeper wasn't quite as effective, but it was still Gibson's best pitch based on run value. At +6, it was still one of the 10 best sweepers in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 sweepers to their name.

This season, however, the sweeper has a run value of -2. That's tied for the lowest run value of any of his offerings, tied with his sinker and changeup. Against the 33 sweepers that Gibson has thrown in his first two starts, opponents are hitting a whopping .600 and slugging 1.000, resulting in hard-hit balls over 50% of the time. Last season, opposing batters hit just .201 with a .314 slugging percentage.

Against the Los Angeles Angels' lineup Saturday night, Gibson has a chance to bring those numbers back down to Earth. LA's .216 team batting average is the second-worst in all of baseball after being shut down by Tomoyuki Sugano on Friday.

The Orioles don't need Gibson to be a front-end starter akin to Sugano or the returning Zach Eflin. They need him to eat innings, preserve a taxed bullpen, and keep Baltimore in games.

Getting his best pitch working will go a long way in accomplishing that goal.

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