MLB insider thinks Orioles could sign former Braves All Star pitcher this winter

Corbin Burnes was spectacular last season, pitching to a 15-9 record and a 2.92 ERA across 194.1 innings.

But Mr. Burnes is now a free agent and there is no guarantee that he remains in Baltimore. MLB insider Mark Feinsand noted the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers as potential suitors for Burnes, and they like to spend large quantities of money relative to teams like the Orioles.

If Baltimore loses their 2024 ace in free agency, what other starting pitchers can they look to to fill the gap in their rotation?

In a separate article, Feinsand reports that Atlanta Braves' 30-year-old southpaw Max Fried could be a good fit for the Orioles.

In 2024, Fried pitched to an 11-10 record and a 3.25 ERA across 174.1 innings. While his 2024 stats are slightly below that of Corbin Burnes, it can be argued that Fried edges Burnes in a few ways.

Thomas Harrigan of MLB notes that Max Fried bests Corbin Burnes in several key statistics since 2020. These include ERA+, Exit Velocity, and Barrel Rate, all seen in the chart below.

Harrigan also notes that Fried's 2023 and 2024 strikeout rates edge Burnes slightly. More notably, however, is the drop in Burnes' strikeout numbers from previous seasons.

Burnes posted an incredible 36.7% K-rate in 2020 and 35.6% in 2021. From 2021, it has dropped in each subsequent season: 30.5% in 2022, 25.5% in 2023, and 23.1% in 2024, suggesting that he has lost some of his strikeout stuff.

On the contrary, Fried has remained consistent, posting strikeout rates between 22% and 26% between 2020 and 2024. This consistency could be more appealing to Baltimore especially because of the risk that Burnes' strikeout rate continues to drop over time.

Finally, the Orioles current array of starters is dominated by righties. Grayson Rodriguez, Albert Suarez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer are their top pitchers going into 2025, followed by Trevor Rogers who pitched to a 7.11 ERA and Cade Povich who pitched to a 5.20 ERA.

Given the struggling Rogers and Povich are their few left-handed options, Fried could help balance the rotation well.

Both of the 30-year-old aces would be great signings for this Orioles team. Given their mediocre 3.94 team ERA last season, the O's rotation needs some help. And while 2021 Cy Young Corbin Burnes might sound like a bigger free agent, Max Fried would be just as valuable — if not more.