Mike Elias’ latest comments should worry Orioles fans that familiar mistake is coming

The Baltimore Orioles finally did the loud part. They landed Pete Alonso in a genuine winter-meetings-level splash for a franchise that’s spent the last few years acting like a “splash” was a luxury item. 

And now comes the part that can make Orioles fans a little uneasy: what happens after the splash, when roster logic shows up with a calculator and starts asking uncomfortable questions. Well, Mike Elias ma

Mike Elias’ latest quote hints the Orioles may be too comfortable at first base

Because in the same MASN mailbag that dug into the Orioles’ starter hunt (Michael King, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez all mentioned as names Baltimore has been tied to), Roch Kubatko was asked the obvious follow-up after the Alonso signing: with first base suddenly crowded, are Ryan Mountcastle or Coby Mayo trade bait? 

Kubatko turned to a classic Elias’ answer. Not evasive, exactly. Just careful. He leaned into the idea that “too many good bats” isn’t a problem, that last season proved how much depth you need, and that the Orioles can spread players out through DH at-bats. 

On one level, that’s reasonable. The Orioles are trying to win the AL East, not win the “cleanest roster spreadsheet” award. You don’t trade good hitters just because the depth chart looks messy in December. And if you’re Elias, you’re certainly not going to announce to the league, “Hi, we have to move a first baseman, please lowball us.”

But it should still make fans squirm a little. This is the exact kind of logic that can talk a team into keeping a surplus bat… while the pitching staff quietly stays one injury away from chaos.

Kubatko laid out a hypothetical roster that includes Mountcastle, Mayo, Alonso, and even Samuel Basallo (listed as a catcher, but part of that first base mix), and basically admitted it would require some creativity — and still isn’t the most common way teams build a contender. 

That’s the heart of the issue. “We have DH at-bats to go around” sounds comforting until you remember DH at-bats aren’t infinite. Somebody’s development gets slowed, somebody’s role turns into part-time limbo, and somebody winds up being your most expensive bench conversation.

If Elias is telling you he’s not moving Mountcastle or Mayo unless the “right deal” appears, that’s believable. It’s also a warning sign that the Orioles could talk themselves into standing pat on the trade market because the bats are good and the depth is real. The same MASN piece makes it clear Baltimore is shopping in the starter aisle, and it also reiterates that Elias doesn’t have “particular constraints” financially as they chase upgrades. 

So yes, they can spend for pitching. But the cleanest way to get better — and not just more expensive — is often converting surplus into need. If you believe the Orioles have an excess at first base/DH, then flipping Mountcastle or Mayo (or packaging one of them) for pitching help is the kind of cold, correct move that keeps a good roster from becoming a “great lineup, stressful staff” roster.

That’s the familiar mistake Orioles fans are right to fear: winning the offseason headline, then letting the season hinge on whether the pitching depth holds. Elias doesn’t have to trade Mountcastle or Mayo. But if the right pitching deal shows up, the Orioles shouldn’t treat that first base logjam like a “nice problem.”