Jim Bowden's latest trade ideas would be bad news for the Orioles

It’s no secret that the Baltimore Orioles need an upgrade in their starting rotation. On paper, their current staff doesn’t look disastrous. A frontline of Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez followed by veterans Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Tomoyuki Sugano suggests competence — at least at first glance.

However, a deeper dive reveals some serious concerns. While Grayson Rodriguez has immense talent and could be a future ace, he's yet to prove he can stay healthy for a full season. That concern has already come to fruition, as he’s currently on the IL. Meanwhile, Morton and Sugano, both well past their prime, are far from reliable long-term options. That leaves Kremer and Eflin, two pitchers who have shown flashes of brilliance but have lacked consistency in the past.

So yes, the Orioles need an ace, and there’s no debate about that. Jim Bowden of The Athletic ($) suggests the Orioles solve their pitching woes by acquiring Dylan Cease from the San Diego Padres. On the surface, it’s enticing — Cease has the stuff that would elevate Baltimore from contenders to a legitimate World Series threat.

But then we get to the price tag:

Too rich for my blood.

Bowden’s proposal suggests the Orioles part ways with their No. 2 prospect, Coby Mayo, a power-hitter with middle-of-the-order potential, along with Cade Povich, a promising left-handed starter with a legitimate shot at being a fixture in Baltimore’s rotation long-term. And all this for a rental.

Haven’t we seen a rental with no strings attached before?

Cease, as talented as he is, is in a contract year. Meaning unless Baltimore extends him, or he’s  extended before the trade, (highly unlikely given that his agent is none other than Scott Boras) he’ll be hitting free agency at season’s end. And Boras' clients rarely sign extensions before testing the open market, where he’s notorious for maximizing every penny. That leaves the Orioles with the very real possibility of giving up two key pieces for a half-season of Cease before watching him walk out of the door.

The Orioles don’t have to look far to see how these types of trades can backfire. In 2023, they sent a trio of prospects to St. Louis for Jack Flaherty, a move that was meant to bolster their rotation for a postseason push. The return on that investment? A disastrous 6.75 ERA, a 1-3 record, and a forgettable playoff performance before Flaherty split.

Now, to be fair, Cease is a far better pitcher than Flaherty. But the process remains the same — mortgaging future assets for a short-term rental with no guarantee of staying. It’s a move that exposes desperation, not long-term sustainability.

The Orioles should absolutely explore the trade market for a frontline starter, but not at this cost. Coby Mayo, while blocked at the MLB level by Baltimore’s infield depth, is still an incredibly valuable trade chip. However, pairing him with Povich, a lefty with a real chance to contribute to the rotation for years to come, is an overpayment.

If the Orioles are going to move Mayo, they should be targeting a starter with multiple years of team control, not a rental. If they’re moving Povich, it should be for a more certain return than a short-term fix. Bowden’s proposed deal simply doesn’t make sense for an organization that has spent years building its farm system into one of baseball’s best.