Jesus Luzardo's extension bad news for Orioles' odds of keeping pending free agent

The Baltimore Orioles might have blown their chance to sign Trevor Rogers to a below-market extension. This spring, the Phillies and Jesus Luzardo went ahead and set the market for what an oft-injured left-handed starter is worth in 2026, signing a five-year, $135 million extension. With that contract on the board, the mission for Trevor Rogers is simple: show that you can stay healthy for a full season, as Luzardo did in 2025, and someone will give you a nine-figure contract.

Luzardo and Rogers share many similarities. They are both in their late 20s, both left-handed starters, both pitched for the Marlins, both have struggled with injuries, and both received down-ballot Cy Young votes last year. They even have very similar arsenals, both featuring a five-pitch mix of the 4-seam, changeup, sweeper, sinker, and slider.

With Jesus Luzardo as a comp, the price for Trevor Rogers just went up

This is all notable because when it comes to negotiating contracts, player comps are important. Before Luzardo signed this contract, there was no great comp for Rogers. Most of the left-handed starters who have signed big deals in free agency have been much more accomplished or much more consistent.

Luzardo is a great comp for Rogers. Here are their stats from 2020-2024:

It's almost the exact same guy. In 2025, they both had breakout seasons in different ways. Luzardo was more dominant from a volume and strikeouts perspective, throwing over 180 innings with a K/9 of 10.6, and Rogers was more dominant from a run prevention standpoint, though in a smaller sample, pitching to a 1.81 ERA in 109 innings.

Rogers' camp would have had a tough time convincing anyone that he had been as dominant as Blake Snell or as consistent as Framber Valdez or Max Fried. Now that Luzardo has signed this deal, it will be incredibly easy for Rogers' agent to point to this contract and say, "That's where the bidding starts".

So if the Orioles were hoping to get Rogers on a discount or on a shorter team-friendly deal, that's over now. If Rogers pitches a full season worth of innings with an ERA below four, he's getting at least what Luzardo just got.

It could be even more too. Luzardo signed before reaching free agency, and it now seems Rogers will reach free agency. With Luzardo out of the picture, the number of free agent starters just shrank, which is good for Rogers. Even if the Orioles are willing to sign Rogers to the Luzardo contract, what's to stop whichever teams that get outbid for Tarik Skubal from throwing five years, $150 million or more at him?

The Orioles under Mike Elias have not shown a willingness or an ability to win bidding wars for top-end starting pitching talent. If the Trevor Rogers sweepstakes get heated, the Orioles are going to bow out and look for a veteran they can sign on a one-year deal.