How the Orioles can survive their rotation struggles

The outlook for the Baltimore Orioles' 2025 starting rotation was never as one of the best units in baseball. With Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez leading the charge, Tomoyuki Sugano, Charlie Morton, and Dean Kremer were tasked with providing enough stability to navigate Baltimore to the latter half of 2025, where they would see the returns of Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells.

The floor was never supposed to be this low.

Entering a new series against the Minnesota Twins, the O's cumulative starter ERA is the highest in the American League by almost one full run. From injuries to Eflin and Rodriguez to Morton's disappointing start to the year, whatever could go wrong has gone wrong in Baltimore.

But the Orioles don't need their starting rotation to be an elite unit - they just need it to be good enough.

The O's have two front-end starters in Eflin and Sugano, who both sport an ERA under 3.15. It wasn't the top two anyone envisioned, but it's their top two nonetheless. The key is whether or not Kremer, Kyle Gibson, and Cade Povich can find more consistency. They don't need elite numbers, but they do need to be passable.

Take the division-leading New York Yankees as an example. Max Fried entered his start Tuesday night with the best ERA in baseball at 1.05, and Carlos Rodon has a 3.29 mark. In the rest of their rotation, comprised of Will Warren, Clarke Schmidt, Carlos Carrasco, and Marcus Stroman, you won't find an ERA below 4.50. The difference, however, is that the quartet has only allowed more than four earned runs twice in their 22 combined starts. That keeps them in every game, and the Bombers' offense is more than good enough to do the rest.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are already nearing the 30-win mark, have just one pitcher who has made at least five starts with an ERA under 4.00. Granted, that's Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has a National League-leading 1.80 ERA, but the rest of their rotation has been good enough.

The Orioles don't have an ace the caliber of Fried or Yamamoto, but in Sugano and Eflin, they have two very good front-end starters. The rest of the rotation just needs to be good enough to keep them in games.

The offense needs to hold up their end of the bargain, too. These examples showcase two top-five offenses in runs scored in 2025, and the Orioles are not close to that ranking. In 2024, however, Baltimore was fourth in baseball in runs. That's the road map.

If the back-end of the rotation can provide more stability and the offense can find a return to form, the Orioles could return to their winning ways.

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