On December 10, the Yankees signed LHP Max Fried to a $218M deal; on December 11, the Red Sox traded four prospects in exchange for LHP Garret Crochet; and on January 20, the Blue Jays swiped OF Anthony Santander for more than $90M.
The Rays have been quiet this offseason but not much was expected from them, as they missed the 2024 playoffs and are not known as big spenders.
And that leaves the Orioles, who are the big question mark in the AL East. Given two straight playoff appearances (and first round exits) and a talented core, the O's should be building around their young studs before they start losing them to free agency.
Have they been able to accomplish that? How has the offseason really fared, and is it as bad as it seems?
Team | MLB Players Added | MLB Players Lost | Money Added (FA) | Money Added (Trade) | Total Money Added |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yankees | 7 | 9 | $235,000,000 | $61,000,000 | $296,000,000 |
Blue Jays | 8 | 2 | $156,000,000 | $113,888,000 | $269,880,000 |
Orioles | 7 | 5 | $70,775,000 | $0 | $70,775,000 |
Red Sox | 9 | 3 | $52,300,000 | $4,600,000 | $56,900,000 |
Rays | 2 | 3 | $37,500,000 | $0 | $37,500,000 |
In terms of total MLB players added and lost, they have signed seven players and lost five players to free agency. This is tied for the third most players added and second most players lost in the division.
In terms of total money spent, they have added $68,975,000 in total contracts, which slots in at third most behind the Yankees and Blue Jays who added over $200M in total contracts. Not only have the Yanks and Jays spent more than double the Orioles but they have relied on trades as well, whereas the O's have yet to make a splash on the trade market.
Based on these numbers alone, it is clear that the O's have not spent the most money or added the most players relative to their AL East foes.
But the number of players added and the amount of money spent does not tell the full story. Of course, it depends how the money is spent and who it's spent on to really get an idea of what the offseason looked like.
So, using ZiPS 2025 WAR projections, we can create a more accurate picture of what the Orioles accomplished (and didn't) this offseason.
After adding up the expected 2025 WAR of all MLB players added and lost via free agency or trade, I took the difference to determine how much WAR teams either added or lost on their 40-man rosters.
Team | Expected WAR Added | Expected WAR Lost | Differential |
---|---|---|---|
Blue Jays | 12.9 | 2.9 | +10.0 |
Red Sox | 11.0 | 5.6 | +5.4 |
Rays | 6.3 | 4.6 | +1.7 |
Orioles | 6.4 | 9.3 | -2.9 |
Yankees | 12.4 | 18.9 | -6.5 |
In total, the Orioles are predicted to add 6.4 WAR and lose 9.3 WAR, which comes out to a -2.9 differential and fourth in the AL East.
The Jays and Red Sox have the best differentials at +10.0 and +5.4 respectively, whereas the Yankees have the worst differential (-6.5) despite spending the most money.
Based on this analysis, it appears the Yankees have had the worst offseason since they spent the most money and are predicted to lose the most WAR in 2025.
But the Orioles have had a similarly disappointing offseason. They lost their ace in Burnes and one of their best bats in Santander and have failed to adequately replace them.
Sure, the O'Neill and Morton signings help lessen the blow but they do not replace the production of Burnes and Santander, which largely explains the -2.9 predicted loss in WAR.
The 2025 offseason is not over and the O's can still make some splashes. Maybe they have a surprise trade in the bank, or maybe they add another arm, or maybe they stick with their current roster. Regardless, the 2025 offseason is shaping up to largely be a disappointment given the lack of money spent, the loss of Burnes and Santander, and the expected drop-off in production from 2024.