Explaining Trevor Rogers' surprising success in Boston

Trevor Rogers' rehab starts didn't inspire much confidence. In his first start for the Norfolk Tides about one month ago, Rogers lasted just 1 2/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs, walking three, and striking out just two. Things didn't get much better over his next three starts in Triple-A.

So, when Rogers was named the 27th man for Baltimore's doubleheader in Boston yesterday, there wasn't much evidence to suggest that the lefty would suddenly have a return to form. An 8.10 ERA in Triple-A doesn't exactly scream "big league pitcher." A 7.11 ERA in four starts in an Orioles uniform last year didn't leave a good taste in anyone's mouth. An All-Star campaign in 2021 felt like a long time ago.

Nevertheless, Rogers' name was penciled into the O's lineup card Saturday night, starting against a Red Sox team that has scored the fifth most runs in baseball.

He shoved.

In his first big league start of 2025, Rogers tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings with no walks, two hits, and five strikeouts. It was, arguably, the best start an Oriole has made this season. Rogers recorded his first scoreless outing since May 2024 and his first scoreless outing completing at least six innings since April 2021.

In that 2021 season, he finished the year with a 2.64 ERA and an All-Star appearance.

Trevor Rogers returns to form with dominant fastball

Velocity isn't everything, but for Rogers, it drastically changes the way he's able to pitch. Saturday night, the lefty's fastball averaged 93.3 mph. According to Statcast, that's his highest average fastball velocity since 2022. We even saw the heater tick over 95 mph on four occasions, an indicator that Rogers could sit at higher velocities as his arm is stretched out. It was his go-to late in the game, being the pitch that induced all three outs of the sixth inning.

With the heater working, Rogers tossed it nearly 50 percent of the time, a drastic 18 percent increase from his usage a season ago. At his best in 2021, Rogers threw the four-seamer almost 58 percent of the time. Clearly, a healthy Rogers likes to be a fastball-dominant pitcher. Over the last few seasons, he hasn't been able to go to that well.

Only time will tell if Rogers is able to string together more solid outings at the big league level, but his shutout in Boston is certainly a good piece to build on.

More Orioles news from Birds Watcher