Dean Kremer sudden Orioles' roster cut tied to unfortunate career trend

Dean Kremer has been the Baltimore Orioles' most consistent starter over the last four seasons. Since 2022, he's pitched over 200 more innings in an Orioles uniform than any other pitcher, and 2025 was his best season by fWAR ever. So it was surprising on Saturday when it was announced that he had been optioned to the minors and would start the season in Norfolk. As disappointing as this news may have been for Kremer, it may ultimately benefit him this season.

Looking at his career splits, April is his worst month by far. His 6.24 career ERA in April is almost two runs higher than any other month of his career. Last year was his worst April yet; he put up a 7.04 ERA, a 2-4 record, and hitters slashed .310/.350/.550 against him.

After several years of these early-season struggles, it doesn't appear to be a coincidence that Kremer is a slow starter. The Orioles didn't come out and say, "We sent Kremer down because he's bad in April," but the data is available to them. After it was announced that Kremer would start the season in the minors, Mike Elias spoke to the media and said it was a difficult decision made after extensive discussion. You can bet that Kremer's habit of starting slow was a part of that discussion.

Kremer's slow starts made the Orioles final rotation decision easier

Elias also told the media that Kremer's demotion will be very temporary and that the Orioles will need more than just five starters to get through the season. That commentary does ring true; it would take an unbelievable amount of luck for the Orioles to get through the season with only the five starters they're carrying into opening day.

Best-case scenario for Kremer is that he takes his typical early-season lumps in Triple-A and gets called up sometime in late April/early May, once he's got the feel for his splitter and pitches like a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the rest of the season. If all works out, he could put up career-best rate stats even if the volume of innings and starts is less than what he's become accustomed to.

Having a pitcher as good as Kremer not being able to make the opening day roster is a good sign for the Orioles' rotation depth, and they seem to have a plan, but if by some miracle the Orioles rotation is completely healthy, it will be interesting to see how they find a role for Kremer. Here are some interesting things to think about:

If one of the Orioles' current starters gets off to a bad start, how long will the Orioles let them struggle before having Kremer replace them in the rotation? If Baz gets lit up in his first couple of starts, would the Orioles option him? If Eflin struggles early, would they put him on the IL? If Bassitt doesn't have it, would they move him to the bullpen?

On the flip side, if all of the Orioles' current starting pitchers are nails for the first half of the season, what would they do with Kremer? If they reach the trade deadline and the rotation doesn't need Kremer, and Trey Gibson is nearing his debut, could Kremer be traded? Would they move Kremer to the bullpen? Only time will tell.