Checking in on the Orioles' newly extended starter reveals a mixed bag of results

The Baltimore Orioles gave up a lot to acquire Shane Baz in the offseason, and the extension they gave him one day into the season only cemented the Orioles' belief in him being a long-term solution in the rotation. Baz is under contract for the next five seasons, so there is a long runway for him to become the starter the Orioles clearly expect him to be, but after five starts, it's fair to say, in the words of Connor4Real: "The reviews have been mixed."

On one hand, it is easy to see the vision with Baz. The fastball seems to come out of his hand effortlessly at 98 mph. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more relaxed delivery result in upper 90s heat. When he doesn't leave his knuckle curve hanging in the heart of the zone, it functions as a deadline wipeout pitch. His stuff stands out especially compared to the parade of soft-tossing righties the Orioles have been putting on the mound over the last few seasons.

Shane Baz has the stuff to be what the Orioles need, but it's just a matter of harnessing it

The issue is that the same pitches that should make him a fearsome starter to have to face are the ones that seem to most betray him. His four-seamer command is hit-or-miss start to start. There have been outings where he's had to abandon that pitch because he just can't locate it. When that happens, he has to lean on his cutter, which is a fine pitch but doesn't have the ceiling of a blazing fastball, and when he's had to throw it to lefties, it's gotten punished.

The knuckle curve, as mentioned above, is deadly in the right spot, but so far this season, Baz has left it in the worst possible spot far too many times. When that has happened, opposing hitters have done a lot of damage. Poor fastball command leads to walks, and hanging curveballs lead to extra base hits. That's a bad combination for a pitcher. That's how you end up with an ERA over five.

If you watch Baz's starts, though, they're not a disaster start to finish. In Baz's debut, the Twins dropped four runs on him in the second, and then he pitched into the sixth without allowing another run. In his second start, the Pirates similarly only scored in one inning. Against the Guardians, he gave up a two-run homer to the third batter he faced and then pitched four scoreless innings.

Most of the walks and runs against Baz come early in the game in bunches, then he figures out what's going wrong and settles in. To his credit, he has not had a blow-up game or been chased early from any of his starts; he's made it through at least five, if not six, every time out. The problem appears to be that he just doesn't seem to know which of his pitches is going to be a problem coming into the game, and by the time he figures it out, the damage is done.

The other issue, just as concerning, is Baz's struggles against lefties. So far this season, lefties are slashing .373/.438/.567 against Baz. That's not going to work. This is related to his previously mentioned command issues because the two pitches he wants to throw at lefties are the four-seam and the curve, and those have been his least consistent offerings, and the cutter can't bail him out.

What can be of comfort to Orioles fans is that over the course of his career, Baz has typically performed better against lefties than righties. It's not like this is a long-standing weakness he's never figured out. He needs to locate his knuckle curve better and ramp up his changeup usage, which last year was his second most thrown pitch to lefties.

That's obviously easier said than done. Pitchers don't usually stop using pitches for no reason. It's been pointed out that Baz's changeup has less movement on it this year than last year, and if that's the case, you couldn't blame him for not wanting to make it his most thrown secondary against lefties. Still, what he's pivoted to isn't working, so it might be worth giving the changeup another look.

Perhaps, more than anything, Baz just needs to be a little luckier. His 3.71 FIP is more than a full run below his ERA, and hitters are running up crazy BABIP numbers on him. With some minor adjustments to his arsenal and little luck, he'll settle in as the middle of the rotation starter the Orioles expect him to be.

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