Brandon Young's latest start makes upcoming roster crunch that much more interesting

After Brandon Young gave up 10 runs in his start against the Astros last Thursday, it seemed like he had made the Baltimore Orioles' decision of who should go down when Trevor Rogers returns from the IL for them. When he gave up three runs in the bottom of the first inning against the Marlins, Orioles fans couldn't wait to get him back to Norfolk. Then he pitched five scoreless innings to secure a quality start and win, and now it feels like maybe he should stick around.

It's a little silly to change your mind about who should be on the active roster based on innings two through six of a start, but here is the case for Brandon Young sticking around.

The Orioles have had a real problem this season just getting their starters to keep them in the game. They've had far too many starts where their starter either goes less than four innings or gives up five or more runs. It is really hard to string together wins when your starters consistently put you behind the eight ball. With the exception of his start against Houston (and to Young's credit, he was somehow facing the Astros for the third time in five starts), Young has kept the Orioles in the game, and it's no coincidence he leads all starters in wins despite only having made four starts.

Brandon Young made his case to stay in the big leagues with his most recent start

As something to think about, here is the rate at which each of the Orioles starters has gone deeper than five innings with a start ERA of less than five.

Shane Baz: 2/7 (29%)
Chris Bassitt: 2/7 (29%)
Kyle Bradish: 3/7 (43%)
Trevor Rogers: 3/6 (50%)
Cade Povich: 1/2 (50%)
Dean Kremer: 2/2 (100%)
Brandon Young: 3/4 (75%)

This is a crude, made-up metric, but it does illustrate that Young has been better on a per-start basis than anyone in the Orioles rotation besides Kremer, who is on the IL. Over the course of the season, it's reasonable to assume that this trend won't hold, but with where the Orioles are in the standings and with how the rest of their rotation is currently pitching, are they in a position to send Young down?

On the other hand, it's fair to point out that Young has had some luck in his opponents this year. The White Sox, Red Sox, and Marlins are not good offenses and when he did face a good offense he got blown out of the game. That's concerning. It's hard to evaluate if that was just bad luck or what because his MLB sample size is still so small, and that one terrible start really skews the numbers.

What Young has going for him that makes the concerns around him less imposing is that he appears to be the only Orioles starter not cursed with terrible command this season, which does make it easier to keep him on the big league mound. It's also relevant that he has completely changed his pitch mix from last year, where he struggled so much, so he's much more equipped for success than he ever has been before.

As the saying goes, if you're being chased by a bear, you don't have to be faster than the bear; you just have to be faster than the slowest person in your group. As long as Young looks better than Povich, he'll likely hold onto his roster spot.

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