Blazing hot spring training has not translated for this former Orioles first-round pick

The Baltimore Orioles drafted Vance Honeycutt with their first-round pick in 2024 with the vision that he could become a power-hitting centerfielder to take over for Cedric Mullins, but in his first season in the minors, he was a strikeout machine and over the course of the year went from one of the Orioles' top five prospects to outside the top 30 by most ranking services.

Honeycutt's 4-4 with four home runs to start spring training made everyone stop and ask themselves if they had given up on Honeycutt too early. One month into the minor league season, and that hot start looks like a flash in the pan.

Honeycutt's numbers in high-A are better than they were last season. In a sense, the power that he displayed in spring training has carried over as he has been hitting the ball hard. Half his hits have gone for extra bases, and a third of them have been homers; his slugging percentage is carrying his OPS. But Honeycutt was drafted out of college two years ago and is now quite old for that level, so one would hope that a 23-year-old repeating high-A would see some sort of progress.

Vance Honeycutt is striking out more than ever

The problem is that there’s not enough progress, and the thing that he needs to progress at the most has gotten worse. Last season, Honeycutt struck out in 40.8% of his plate appearances. You simply cannot exist in professional baseball, striking out that much. The worst K% of any qualified major leaguer last season was Ryan McMahon at 32.3%, which is still "too high" but a world better than 40.8%.

This year, Honeycutt is striking out in 50.7% of his plate appearances. That's so bad that once he returns from injury, even the Frederick Keys at some point will have to consider asking Mike Elias if they have to keep putting him in the lineup. On top of striking out more, he's also walking slightly less, and his batting average is still sub-.200. None of that is going to work.

Honeycutt's defensive ability and raw power would be an exciting combo to see at the big league level, but if he's striking out in over 50% of his plate appearances at high-A, there is no way he'll progress past that level, let alone reach the show. It's a disappointing outcome, but a good reminder that not every first-round pick is destined for the big leagues.

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