Another series loss pushes the Orioles one step closer to being forced to answer a franchise-defining question

The Baltimore Orioles wake up today in last place in the AL East. As far as their win-loss record, they're not far behind the other teams in their division, nor are they too distantly removed from the wild card picture, but the eye test and their run differential suggest that they are among the very worst teams in the league and destined to continue trending downward until they ultimately end up at the top of the draft.

They can only win one way, in an offensive shootout. If their offense gets held to three or fewer runs, their chances of winning dwindle to zero. About once a series, their pitching completely collapses and allows 10+ runs in a game, so even if their offense has a good game and plates five or six runs, they lose anyway. In the incredibly rare event their pitching holds up, their offense decides that's the day they're taking off.

So even though the standings say they're just a good week away from being back in the playoff picture, with how this team is playing, a winning streak longer than two feels almost inconceivable. A second straight trade deadline fire sale feels inevitable.

This Orioles season is putting Mike Elias job security to the test

So the big question for Orioles ownership is: If the team is going to sell at the deadline again, should Mike Elias be the one making those important trade-deadline deals?

On the one hand, Elias has a pretty solid trade track record as long as he's the one selling off MLB talent. In 2019, he extracted Kyle Bradish from the Angels for Dylan Bundy, in 2022, he got Yennier Cano and Cade Povich for Jorge Lopez, and at last year's deadline, he turned a handful of expiring contracts into 12 new prospects, some of whom are already contributing at the big league level.

On the other hand, Elias has been in full control of the front office for eight seasons, and it's his "vision" that has led the Orioles to be one of the worst teams in the league for two years in a row. If the Orioles want to start heading in a winning direction, is the guy who has proven to be distinctly incapable of making win-now moves the best guy to be making important decisions about the future of your team?

If the Orioles were to sell at this deadline, here is a list of players the Orioles could potentially get positve value for in a trade:

Adley Rutschman
Colton Cowser
Coby Mayo
Taylor Ward
Leody Taveras
Trevor Rogers
Ryan Helsley
Yennier Cano
Dietrich Enns

This is even a pretty conservative list. If Elias is in "save my job mode," who's to say that Gunnar Henderson wouldn't come up in a trade conversation? Rebuilds are good for job security. If Elias decides the best way to keep his job is to convince David Rubenstein that he needs another chance to rebuild from the ground up, then everything could be on the table.

You don't want someone desperate representing you in a negotiation. If the product on the field for the Orioles this season is bad enough for the Orioles to lose faith in Elias, there is no reason to wait until after the trade deadline and maybe just as importantly, the draft to do something about it.

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