A close look shows just how close Pete Alonso is to breaking out of early-season funk

At first glance, the Baltimore Orioles' signing of Pete Alonso honestly does not look that great. After signing Alonso to a franchise-defining five-year, $155 million deal, expectations were understandably high that Alonso would be at least the preeminent slugger that he was with the Mets. Through 22 games, that has not been the case at all.

For his first 96 plate appearances with the Orioles, Alonso has only managed a .207/.323/.341 line with just two home runs to his name. While there have been some good moments, most Baltimore fans probably wanted to see more out of him through the season's first month or so.

However, if you take a closer look at what Alonso has done in 2026, you see a guy who has actually made some positive adjustments and who is tantalizingly close to being the guy the Orioles hoped he would be.

Pete Alonso's advanced metrics give plenty of hope that his best is yet to come

Baseball is a results-oriented business, so pointing to batted ball metrics when a guy/team is underperforming, and big spots in games don't go their way, is little solace for Orioles fans that just want the team to win. However, what they do help us tell is how likely it is that players will improve and, sometimes, just how close that is to happening.

In Alonso's case, the numbers are fascinating. It is absolutely true that his counting stats are not where you want them, and the drop-off in his barrel rate is worth noting. However, despite the ugly start, Alonso has made appreciable improvement with his walk rate and chase rate, and his hard-hit % and average exit velocity both remain elite. Most of what we are seeing can honestly be explained by a spike in his ground ball rate, that it likely related to his lack of barrels.

Given Alonso's track record, Orioles fans should expect his luck to turn around relatively soon. His current 45.5% ground ball rate would be a career-high by a pretty wide margin, and Alonso has never come even remotely close to putting up a 46th percentile barrel rate in his career. It is hard to say that he will become the best version of himself in 2026, but there is little chance that he will be as bad as he has been for much longer.

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