3 keys to unlocking an AL East title for the Orioles in 2025

With under a month until pitchers and catchers report, it's beginning to feel like baseball season. With every new year comes new hopes, a refresh of an old dream, and for many a fresh start. The Orioles are gearing up for a new beginning in 2025. Even though the final big name free agents are still available, Baltimore has locked down what looks to be the bulk of the roster for Opening Day this season.

Every year, each team has the same goal - to win the World Series. However, teams approach that goal in many different ways. The first step in any team's quest for immortality is to make it to October. With the expansion of the postseason in 2022, there are more ways than ever to make the playoffs. The most appealing to any team is to win your division. Over the last ten World Series, the champion of the baseball world has also topped their division in the regular season. The only two teams that won a title without winning their division are the 2019 Washington Nationals and the 2023 Texas Rangers.

The AL East is one of the toughest, if not the toughest, division in baseball. How does Baltimore capture their second division title since the turn of the decade? The keys are there for the Orioles to return to form in 2025.

1. The Orioles have to get off to a strong start

The Orioles in 2023 started the year off hot in April (including the opener on March 30th), going 19-9 through the month. This allowed them to be in position to capitalize on the robust offense during that stretch, as they scored 147 runs in just 28 games.

Similarly to the 2023 season, the Orioles went 19-10 in the month of April in 2024 (including the opening series played on the final weekend of March). Baltimore scored the exact same amount of runs, 147, in the month just as they did the year prior.

A strong opening stretch will allow the team some cushion for the inevitable slump that all teams fall victim to during some stretch of the grueling 162-game season. Capitalizing on the offense at the beginning when pitching is typically still aligning itself to the full workload of regular season play is the major key to a strong start.

2. The Orioles' pitching staff needs to show up

With the addition of Corbin Burnes in 2024, the Orioles were expecting to take a jump from the rubber. Instead, they seemingly took a slight step backward. The Orioles had a team ERA of 3.91 while accumulating 1,431 strikeouts in 2023. Following the addition of Burnes, the Orioles team ERA rose to 3.93, and they only struck out 1,380. A slight drop in production but Burnes was not the reason that the Orioles staff regressed, even if only slightly, by himself. Injuries to John Means held him out for the bulk of both seasons. In 2024, Kyle Bradish underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to make his return in late 2025.

The additions of Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano are not the flashiest moves but it might be exactly what the Orioles need. Charlie Morton is well past his top-end status in the starting rotation but his value comes from the reliability of his old arm. Morton has been consistently starting 30+ games in a season for the last seven years, excluding the COVID-shortened 2020.

Sugano on the other hand is one of Japan's most decorated starting pitchers and if his game is to translate to MLB in the same light as another 30 year old rookie from Japan, Shota Imanaga, then the Orioles might have found one of the most reliable options from this year's offseason.

With the expected return of Kyle Bradish later in the season, and the expectation of the Orioles to be in position to acquire a starter at the deadline, Baltimore might find themselves bouncing back down the stretch. It will all begin with a strong offensive start at the beginning of the year. Baltimore is not short on offensive talent, especially after adding Tyler O'Neill this winter. The staff will be the measuring stick for how this team will perform.

3. The Orioles need to win big outside of the division

In 2024 the Orioles lost the division to the New York Yankees by three games. This did not come from a lack of intra-divisional wins - they were the best in the division in that regard. It stemmed from the lack of wins generated from playing the AL West and teams from the National League.

The Orioles went 18-14 versus teams in the AL West last season and that showed as they dropped winnable games to the Rangers and Angels in May. To supplement the mass of games that will play inside the division, Baltimore will need to take care of business when they face teams on the other coast. Games against teams amid a rebuild or on the fall back to earth from an excellent season prior are points of emphasis throughout the season. All 162 matter, for example, had Baltimore won three of those four games they would have tied for the division lead with the Yankees. While taking care of business in all four would have given them the first round bye instead of playing a three game set against the Royals.

The strongest point of contention for the Orioles this upcoming season will be to handle their business against the National League. Baltimore finished the season under 500 against the National League in 2024 and will be set to right their wrongs this season. With the new balanced schedule introduced in 2023, there will be no avoiding the NL juggernauts anymore. With that, there are plenty of teams regressing or trying to rebuild that if the Orioles handle will set them up nicely for a division title.

Baltimore has the pieces, and they have done it before. If the Orioles can start strong and stay healthy this is a team that is primed to return to the throne of the AL East.