Who Might the Orioles Take in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft?

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The Orioles always pick someone in the Rule 5, and a competitive team shouldn’t change that.

Next Wednesday is a national holiday in Birdland, as the Orioles are gearing up for the Rule 5 Draft. The Orioles front office has picked at least one player in each of the last 15 Rule 5 Drafts dating back to 2006, so expecting another is a very safe bet. There are even a few success stories on the active roster, namely Anthony Santander and Tyler Wells.

There are some fans who think the Birds will pass now that the team is contending, but that assumption ignores relevant context. The active streak includes the last competitive window when Dan Duquette drafted Santander and Ryan Flaherty, among others. The Orioles also have open spots on both the active roster and the 40-man roster, so picking someone would not create a logjam. The front office could have protected another eligible prospect, but they chose to leave space open. This would be a great opportunity to add a backup catcher, a bullpen arm, or even a utility infielder. As I said on the latest episode of the Section 336 podcast, it would be the shock of the offseason if the Birds did not make a selection.

Having said that, there is one scenario where I could see the team passing on a pick. Unlike recent years, the O’s do not have one of the first picks in the Rule 5 Draft. They are picking in the middle of the round, and some of their targets will be going to other teams who pick higher. It is possible the Mike Elias regime has one player that they really want above all others, and if he is gone before their turn, then the Orioles might pass. But given how much preparation goes into this short event, I seriously doubt the Birds are only looking at one player, especially when they could address a few different positions.

Here are my top targets, split up by position. There will surely be other players taken that don’t fit in the Orioles plans, such as outfielders or a right-handed first baseman.

Potential Reliever

As an annual contender with a sustainable pipeline of talent, the Dodgers always have too many players on the fringes on their 40-man roster. Therefore, they often lose prospects in the Rule 5 Draft and lose even more in the minor league portion. My favorite target for the Orioles is, unsurprisingly, Dodgers farmhand Carlos Duran. Rule 5 pitchers are often injured or coming off injuries, but Duran has already played half a season after missing the first few months of 2022. Here is what FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen has to say about him:

He missed the first half of the 2022 season with a shoulder injury but was back to sitting in the mid-90s when he returned and built back up to five-inning outings late in the year. The 21-year-old has a heavy sinker and a potential plus-plus slider spearheading a developmental starter’s pitch mix. A drafting team could deploy him as a reliever (he threw just 48 innings in 2022 — it’s a snug workload fit) before resuming starter development in 2024. His slider has an elite spin rate (about 3,000 rpm) and grades out well in other proprietary pitch metrics, and his fastball’s sink and tail keep it off barrels. His size (6-foot-7) and the visual nastiness of his stuff provide the eyeball scouting compliment to the data.

An envious sinker-slider mix sounds like every reliever on the Yankees and Jhoan Duran, who as far as I know is not related to Carlos. The large frame and potential 2023 innings remind me a lot of Tyler Wells, where the Orioles stuck him in the bullpen before moving him to the rotation the following year. Drafting players who haven’t even reached AA is falling out of fashion, but pitchers can make the jump better than hitters can. Since scouts like Duran so much, there is a very good chance a weaker team picks him first. I could see the Cubs, Diamondbacks, or Giants drafting him.

The Orioles have plenty of pitching options in the Rule 5 Draft

The Braves have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball, but Victor Vodnik could quickly become a late-inning arm. He is available due to an extremely high walk rate, but pro pitching development could help him harness his stuff. Here is what Brad Johnson of MLB Trade Rumors thinks:

Vodnik is a relief prospect with a cutting fastball. He has an adequate changeup and a work-in-progress slider. He pitched to a 2.93 ERA at Triple-A last season. He had issues with walks but made up for it by inducing over 50 percent ground balls. He’s allowed high BABIPs – a sign he might not have a high leverage future. He appears to be big league ready. Teams can look at him as comparable to the typical non-roster invitee.

A high BABIP will absolutely plummet his performance if walks continue to be an issue, but I think it is impressive that he nonetheless had a low ERA. Since his stuff is still unfinished, Vodnik would likely get a longer leash from a rebuilding team than what the Orioles can provide.

The Red Sox love poaching players from rival farm systems (Garrett Whitlock was a Yankee minor leaguer), and the Birds might return the favor. I was quite surprised the Sox did not protect Thad Ward, who is a classic injured pitcher than can make the jump to MLB right now. Here is Longenhagen again:

He looked good in the Arizona Fall League, locating 92-94 mph fastballs while mixing in two above-average breaking balls: a cutter and a slurve, which was plus. He looks like a possible bulk relief fit right now. He might be tough for another team to take in the Rule 5 because of the innings increase he’d have to endure by working on the big league roster all season.

Speaking to those strong numbers, Ward had a 2.43 ERA in 33.1 AA innings and then a 2.84 ERA in 12.2 AFL innings with high strikeout rates and high-but-not-alarming walk rates. I would be comfortable making Ward a multi-inning reliever, and I think he’d be a safer pick than some other injured pitchers.

Longshot picks: Jacob Wallace (Red Sox), Noah Song (Red Sox), Sean Boyle (Yankees), Joey Murray (Blue Jays), Jimmy Robbins (Blue Jays) Nick Mikolajchak (Guardians), Jayden Murray (Astros), Matt Ruppenthal (Astros), Antoine Kelly (Rangers), Erik Miller (Phillies), Victor Castaneda (Brewers), Aaron Leasher (Padres), Mitchell Stumpo (Diamondbacks), Nick Robertson (Dodgers)

Potential Backup Catcher

Based on the types of catchers the Orioles have claimed recently and then outrighted, it looks like the front office wants a glove-first backstop. That makes sense when the starter is a great hitter, but that should not narrow their searches in the bargain bin. Robinson Chirinos served as a mentor for Adley Rutschman this year, but given how mature Rutschman is, he could capably mentor a rookie backup.

Moving up from High-A to the Majors is a lot to ask of a catcher, but Ronaiker Palma might be able to do it. He hit .300 in 65 games for Spokane with moderate power, but a walk rate under 5% could spell doom. Once more, from Eric:

Palma’s lack of physicality might be a barrier between him and being drafted, but he has fantastic catch-and-throw skills and could be a 40–60 game backup in 2023, with more long-term upside because of his contact skills.

Prospects need as many reps as possible, but the Orioles would be betting on Palma developing in a Major League environment and spending lots of time in the cage.

A more defensive-minded pick with far less upside would be Drew Millas of the Nationals system. The main return from the A’s for Josh Harrison and Yan Gomes, Millas’s output immediately declined after the swap. His numbers greatly improved in A+ this year, but he struggled in 45 AA games. His surface-level stats in the AFL look good, so it is up to team evaluators to determine what they think of Millas going forward.

Josh Breaux is pretty similar to Millas but has played in AAA. In 94 games split between AA and AAA, Breaux showed good power with 19 home runs and an isolated power over .200, which is well above average. His low batting average caps his production, but I would imagine his MLB stat line would only be a little worse than his .699 AAA OPS.

Longshot pick: Stephen Scott (Red Sox), Antonio Gomez (Yankees), Blake Hunt (Rays)

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The Orioles always pick someone in the Rule 5, and a competitive team shouldn’t change that.

Potential Reliever

The Orioles have plenty of pitching options in the Rule 5 Draft

Potential Backup Catcher

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